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Wirtschaftswachstum und Konjunkturprognosen auf regionaler Ebene

Author

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  • Robert Lehmann

Abstract

Ein wesentliches Ziel politischer Akteure ist die Sicherung eines nachhaltigen Wachstumspfades. Konjunkturprognosen stellen ein wichtiges Instrument zur Reduktion der Unsicherheit über das weitere Wirtschaftswachstum dar. Der Großteil der existierenden Forschung konzentriert sich auf Nationalstaaten, während subnationale Einheiten eher eine untergeordnete Rolle spielen. Diese Dissertation fokussiert daher auf regionales Wirtschaftswachstum und regionale Konjunkturprognosen. Nach einer thematischen Einordnung in Kapitel 1, untersucht Kapitel 2 den Zusammenhang zwischen unterschiedlichen Wirtschaftsstrukturen und regionalem Wirtschaftswachstum. In der ökonomischen Literatur werden dahingehend zwei konkurrierende Konzepte diskutiert: Spezialisierung und Diversifikation. In Kontrast zu bestehenden Studien wird argu-mentiert, dass beide Konzepte sich gegenseitig beeinflussen. Für die 70 größten deutschen Städte finden sich negative Interaktionseffekte im Verarbeitenden Gewerbe, Baugewerbe und bei den höherwertigen Dienstleistungen. Bei Kapitel 3 handelt es sich um eine systematische Studie der Prognosegüte einer Vielzahl regionaler, nationaler und internationaler Indikatoren für die Vorhersage des BIP zweier deutscher Bundesländer sowie Ostdeutschlands. Besonders Kombinationsstrategien und regionale Indikatoren, welche die regionale Wirtschaftsstruktur abbilden, besitzen die höchste Treffsicherheit. Kapitel 4 hingegen fragt, ob sektoral disaggregierte Vorhersagen das Prognoseergebnis der gesamten Bruttowertschöpfung (BWS) verbessern. Besonders für Prognosen des kommenden Quartals kann das Ergebnis für die gesamte BWS durch Disaggregation deutlich verbessert werden. Kapitel 5 fokussiert auf die Prognose der Exporte europäischer Staaten. Es wird untersucht, ob Befragungsdaten oder eher harte Fakten die Exportprognose verbessern können. Dabei zeigt sich, dass Befragungsdaten klar im Vorteil sind. Jedoch weisen die Länder eine starke Heterogenität bei ihrer Prognosegüte auf. Diese Unterschiede können wesentlich durch die Exportzusammensetzung der Staaten erklärt werden. Das letzte Kapitel fasst die Arbeit zusammen und gibt Ausblicke für die weitere Forschung.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Wirtschaftswachstum und Konjunkturprognosen auf regionaler Ebene," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 65, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifobei:65
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    Keywords

    Spezialisierung; Diversi?kation; Interaktionsmodelle; Regionale Bruttowertschöpfung; Regionale Konjunkturprognosen; Prognosekombination; Faktormodelle; Exportprognosen;

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure
    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes

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