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Prognosen der regionalen Konjunkturentwicklung

  • Christian Dreger
  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin

German business cycle forecasts refer to the whole country. However, the usefulness of these forecasts at the regional level is not uncontroversial. Significant deviations between regional and national forecasts could occur if the sectoral structure is different. In this case, the forecast for the entire economy might be rather uninformative for a specific region. To bridge the gap, we develop a method for business cycle forecasts at the regional level which can be applied for the German states. In particular, the regional evolution is explained by the national economic development and regional indicators. The latter are determined by means of a principal component analysis from a huge set of time series. Using this approach, we are able to forecast the regional performance for the current year and the year ahead. The principal technique is illustrated for the state of Berlin. Vorhersagen der konjunkturellen Entwicklung werden in Deutschland meist für die Ebene der Gesamtwirtschaft durchgeführt. Sie sind jedoch nicht auf die regionalen Verhältnisse übertragbar. Signifikante Abweichungen können sich unter anderem wegen einer unterschiedlichen Sektoralstruktur ergeben. Eventuell liefert die gesamtwirtschaftliche Prognose ein verzerrtes Bild, wenn es darum geht, die künftige wirtschaftliche Entwicklung in der Region zu beurteilen. Daher wird hier ein Verfahren zur Prognose der regionalen Wirtschaftsentwicklung diskutiert, das auf der Ebene der einzelnen Bundesländer einsetzbar ist. Darin wird die regionale Entwicklung zum einen durch den gesamtwirtschaftlichen Verlauf erklärt. Zum anderen sind regionalspezifische Indikatoren entscheidend, die im Rahmen einer Hauptkomponentenanalyse bestimmt werden. Das Verfahren erlaubt eine verlässliche Vorhersage der regionalen Entwicklung in den einzelnen Bundesländern im laufenden und im folgenden Jahr. Die Methode wird exemplarisch für das Land Berlin dargestellt.

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File URL: http://ejournals.duncker-humblot.de/doi/pdf/10.3790/vjh.76.4.47
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Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung.

Volume (Year): 76 (2007)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
Pages: 47-55

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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwvjh:76-4-5
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  1. Tommaso Proietti, 2006. "Temporal disaggregation by state space methods: Dynamic regression methods revisited," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(3), pages 357-372, November.
  2. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2005. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables for the new member states of the European Union," Working Paper Series 0482, European Central Bank.
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