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Prognosen der regionalen Konjunkturentwicklung

Listed author(s):
  • Christian Dreger
  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin

Prognosen der konjunkturellen Entwicklung in Deutschland beziehen sich zumeist auf die nationale Ebene. Die Ergebnisse sind jedoch nicht ohne Weiteres auf die regionalen Verhältnisse übertragbar. Ein wichtiger Grund dafür ist, dass die Branchenstrukturen der Regionen mehr oder weniger stark von derjenigen des gesamten Landes abweichen. In diesem Wochenbericht wird ein Verfahren zur Prognose der regionalen Wirtschaftsentwicklung für die einzelnen Bundesländer vorgestellt. Zum einen werden die Ergebnisse der nationalen Konjunkturprognose, zum anderen regionenspezifische Indikatoren herangezogen. Das Verfahren erlaubt eine empirisch fundierte Vorhersage der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in den einzelnen Bundesländern für das laufende und das folgende Jahr. Die Methode wird hier exemplarisch auf das Land Berlin angewandt. Danach wird die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion in Berlin 2006 und 2007 zwar schwächer expandieren als in Deutschland insgesamt, die jahrelange Phase der Schrumpfung setzt sich aber nicht mehr fort.

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Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Wochenbericht.

Volume (Year): 73 (2006)
Issue (Month): 34 ()
Pages: 469-474

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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:73-34-1
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  1. Tommaso Proietti, 2006. "Temporal disaggregation by state space methods: Dynamic regression methods revisited," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 9(3), pages 357-372, November.
  2. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Banerjee, Anindya & Masten, Igor, 2005. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables for the new member states of the European Union," Working Paper Series 482, European Central Bank.
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