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Prognosen der regionalen Konjunkturentwicklung

  • Christian Dreger
  • Konstantin A. Kholodilin

Prognosen der konjunkturellen Entwicklung in Deutschland beziehen sich zumeist auf die nationale Ebene. Die Ergebnisse sind jedoch nicht ohne Weiteres auf die regionalen Verhältnisse übertragbar. Ein wichtiger Grund dafür ist, dass die Branchenstrukturen der Regionen mehr oder weniger stark von derjenigen des gesamten Landes abweichen. In diesem Wochenbericht wird ein Verfahren zur Prognose der regionalen Wirtschaftsentwicklung für die einzelnen Bundesländer vorgestellt. Zum einen werden die Ergebnisse der nationalen Konjunkturprognose, zum anderen regionenspezifische Indikatoren herangezogen. Das Verfahren erlaubt eine empirisch fundierte Vorhersage der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung in den einzelnen Bundesländern für das laufende und das folgende Jahr. Die Methode wird hier exemplarisch auf das Land Berlin angewandt. Danach wird die gesamtwirtschaftliche Produktion in Berlin 2006 und 2007 zwar schwächer expandieren als in Deutschland insgesamt, die jahrelange Phase der Schrumpfung setzt sich aber nicht mehr fort.

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Article provided by DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research in its journal Wochenbericht.

Volume (Year): 73 (2006)
Issue (Month): 34 ()
Pages: 469-474

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Handle: RePEc:diw:diwwob:73-34-1
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  1. Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano & Masten, Igor, 2005. "Forecasting macroeconomic variables for the new member states of the European Union," Working Paper Series 0482, European Central Bank.
  2. Tommaso Proietti, 2004. "Temporal Disaggregation by State Space Methods: Dynamic Regression Methods Revisited," Econometrics 0411011, EconWPA.
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