Are There Any Reliable Leading Indicators for US Inflation and GDP Growth?
In this paper we evaluate the relative merits of three approaches to information extraction from a large data set for forecasting, namely, the use of an automated model selection procedure, the adoption of a factor model, and single-indicator-based forecast pooling. The comparison is conducted using a large set of indicators for forecasting US inflation and GDP growth. We also compare our large set of leading indicators with purely autoregressive models, using an evaluation procedure that is particularly relevant for policy making. The evaluation is conducted both ex-post and in a pseudo real time context, for several forecast horizons, and using both recursive and rolling estimation. The results indicate a preference for simple forecasting tools, with a good relative performance of pure autoregressive models, and substantial instability in the leading characteristics of the indicators.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
|Date of creation:||2002|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.eui.eu/ECO/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000.
"The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
- Forni, Mario & Hallin, Marc & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 1999. "The Generalized Dynamic Factor Model: Identification and Estimation," CEPR Discussion Papers 2338, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Lucrezia Reichlin & Marco Lippi, 2000. "The generalised dynamic factor model: identification and estimation," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/10143, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- David Hendry & Michael P. Clements, 2001.
"Pooling of Forecasts,"
2002-W9, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.
- Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, June.
- Massimiliano Marcellino & James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, .
"Macroeconomic Forecasting in the Euro Area: Country Specific versus Area-Wide Information,"
201, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
- Artis, Michael J & Banerjee, Anindya & Marcellino, Massimiliano, 2002.
"Factor Forecasts for the UK,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3119, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Michael ARTIS & Anindya BANERJEE & Massimiliano MARCELLINO, 2001. "Factor Forecasts for the UK," Economics Working Papers ECO2001/15, European University Institute.
- Michael Artis & Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino, . "Factor forecasts for the UK," Working Papers 203, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
- James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003.
"Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices,"
Journal of Economic Literature,
American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting output and inflation: the role of asset prices," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 2001. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," NBER Working Papers 8180, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- David Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000.
"Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures,"
Economics Series Working Papers
3, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
- Krolzig, Hans-Martin & Hendry, David F., 2001. "Computer automation of general-to-specific model selection procedures," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 25(6-7), pages 831-866, June.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig & David Hendry, 1999. "Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 314, Society for Computational Economics.
- Hans-Martin Krolzig, 2000. "Computer Automation of General-to-Specific Model Selection Procedures," Econometric Society World Congress 2000 Contributed Papers 0411, Econometric Society.
- Kevin Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 2003.
"Data Mining Reconsidered: Encompassing And The General-To-Specific Approach To Specification Search,"
9727, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
- Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, 1999. "Data mining reconsidered: encompassing and the general-to-specific approach to specification search," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 167-191.
- Kevin D. Hoover & Stephen J. Perez, . "Data Mining Reconsidered: Encompassing And The General-To-Specific Approach To Specification Search," Department of Economics 97-27, California Davis - Department of Economics.
- Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 2002. "Macroeconomic Forecasting Using Diffusion Indexes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(2), pages 147-62, April.
- David F. Hendry & Hans-Martin Krolzig, 1999. "Improving on 'Data mining reconsidered' by K.D. Hoover and S.J. Perez," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 202-219.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. " Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1201-28, September.
- Filip Keereman, 1999. "The track record of the Commission forecasts," European Economy - Economic Papers 137, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- David F. Hendry & Neil R. Ericsson, 1990.
"Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States,"
International Finance Discussion Papers
383, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Hendry, David F. & Ericsson, Neil R., 1991. "Modeling the demand for narrow money in the United Kingdom and the United States," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 833-881, May.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999.
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
- Filip Keereman, 2003. "External assumptions, the international environment and the track record of the Commission Forecast," European Economy - Economic Papers 189, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
- Stephen G. Cecchetti & Rita S. Chu & Charles Steindel, 2000. "The unreliability of inflation indicators," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 6(Apr).
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998. "A Comparison of Linear and Nonlinear Univariate Models for Forecasting Macroeconomic Time Series," NBER Working Papers 6607, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Thomas J. Sargent & Christopher A. Sims, 1977.
"Business cycle modeling without pretending to have too much a priori economic theory,"
55, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS program to estimate observable index model from Sargent-Sims(1977)," Statistical Software Components RTZ00126, Boston College Department of Economics.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eui:euiwps:eco2002/21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Rhoda Lane)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.