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Die Prognose des Bruttoinlandsprodukts auf regionaler Ebene

Author

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  • Robert Lehmann

    ()

  • Klaus Wohlrabe

    ()

Abstract

Prognosen der wirtschaftlichen Entwicklung auf regionaler Ebene sind bisher eher selten in der wissenschaftlichen Literatur und in der Praxis vorzufinden. Dies ist vor allem auf das Fehlen von Quartalsdaten und der nur wenigen potenziellen Indikatoren auf regionaler Ebene zurückzuführen. Der vorliegende Artikel zeigt für Sachsen und Ostdeutschland, inwieweit Prognosen für das jeweilige Bruttoinlandsprodukt möglich sind. Für die Vorhersage werden sowohl internationale, nationale als auch regionale Indikatoren verwendet. Neben einfachen Modellprognosen werden auch verschiedene Kombinationsansätze verwendet. Dadurch können einfache Benchmark-Modelle signifikant verbessert werden.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2012. "Die Prognose des Bruttoinlandsprodukts auf regionaler Ebene," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 65(21), pages 17-23, November.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:65:y:2012:i:21:p:17-23
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    File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/DocDL/ifosd_2012_21_4.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2015. "Forecasting GDP at the Regional Level with Many Predictors," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 16(2), pages 226-254, May.
    2. Gerit Vogt, 2010. "VAR-Prognose-Pooling : ein Ansatz zur Verbesserung der Informationsgrundlage der ifo Dresden Konjunkturprognosen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 17(02), pages 32-40, 04.
    3. Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Vierteljährliche volkswirtschaftliche Gesamtrechnungen für Sachsen mit Hilfe temporaler Disaggregation," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 14(04), pages 24-36, 08.
    4. Christian Dreger & Konstantin A. Kholodilin, 2007. "Prognosen der regionalen Konjunkturentwicklung," Vierteljahrshefte zur Wirtschaftsforschung / Quarterly Journal of Economic Research, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, vol. 76(4), pages 47-55.
    5. Konstantin Arkadievich Kholodilin & Boriss Siliverstovs & Stefan Kooths, 2008. "A Dynamic Panel Data Approach to the Forecasting of the GDP of German Länder," Spatial Economic Analysis, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(2), pages 195-207.
    6. Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Ludwig, Udo, 2002. "Vierteljährliche Entstehungsrechnung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts für Ostdeutschland: Sektorale Bruttowertschöpfung," IWH Discussion Papers 164, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    7. Beate Schirwitz & Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2009. "Regionale Konjunkturzyklen in Deutschland – Teil II: Die Zyklendatierung," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(14), pages 24-31, July.
    8. Nikolay Robinzonov & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2010. "Freedom of Choice in Macroeconomic Forecasting ," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo, vol. 56(2), pages 192-220, June.
    9. Stefan Arent & Michael Weber & Robert Lehmann, 2012. "Konjunkturprognose Ostdeutschland und Sachsen 2011/2012: Europäische Schuldenkrise lähmt gesamtwirtschaftliche Expansion," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 19(01), pages 11-20, February.
    10. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Die ifo Kapazitätsauslastung - ein gleichlaufender Indikator der deutschen Industriekonjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(16), pages 15-23, August.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima und die deutsche Konjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(18), pages 17-21, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wirtschaftswachstum; Regionale Entwicklung; Sozialprodukt; Sachsen; Neue Bundesländer; Wirtschaftsindikator; Bruttoinlandsprodukt;

    JEL classification:

    • R11 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Regional Economic Activity: Growth, Development, Environmental Issues, and Changes
    • L10 - Industrial Organization - - Market Structure, Firm Strategy, and Market Performance - - - General

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