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Sektorale Prognosen und deren Machbarkeit auf regionaler Ebene – Das Beispiel Sachsen

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  • Robert Lehmann
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

Abstract

Prognosen für einzelne Wirtschaftsbereiche sind auf der regionalen Ebene bis dato noch nicht systematisch analysiert worden. Der vorliegende Artikel schließt diese Lücke in der Literatur. Im Fokus steht die Prognosegüte von einer Vielzahl von Indikatoren für sechs Sektoren auf der Ebene des Freistaates Sachsen. Die Verbesserung der Treffsicherheit gegenüber einem einfachen Benchmark-Modell variiert dabei zwischen den einzelnen Wirtschaftsbereichen. Darüber hinaus sind es sektorspezifische Indikatoren, welche signifikant kleinere Prognosefehler generieren.

Suggested Citation

  • Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Sektorale Prognosen und deren Machbarkeit auf regionaler Ebene – Das Beispiel Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(04), pages 22-29, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifodre:v:20:y:2013:i:04:p:22-29
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2015. "Forecasting GDP at the Regional Level with Many Predictors," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 16(2), pages 226-254, May.
    2. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2006. "Forecasting with Many Predictors," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 10, pages 515-554, Elsevier.
    3. Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Forecast Combinations," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 4, pages 135-196, Elsevier.
    4. Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2014. "Forecasting gross value-added at the regional level: are sectoral disaggregated predictions superior to direct ones?," Review of Regional Research: Jahrbuch für Regionalwissenschaft, Springer;Gesellschaft für Regionalforschung (GfR), vol. 34(1), pages 61-90, February.
    5. Nikolay Robinzonov & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2010. "Freedom of Choice in Macroeconomic Forecasting ," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 56(2), pages 192-220, June.
    6. Brautzsch, Hans-Ulrich & Ludwig, Udo, 2002. "Vierteljährliche Entstehungsrechnung des Bruttoinlandsprodukts für Ostdeutschland: Sektorale Bruttowertschöpfung," IWH Discussion Papers 164/2002, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
    7. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    8. G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), 2006. "Handbook of Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima und die deutsche Konjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(18), pages 17-21, October.
    2. Stefan Sauer & Michael Weber & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2018. "Das neue ifo Geschäftsklima Ostdeutschland und Sachsen: Hintergründe und Anpassungen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 25(03), pages 20-24, June.

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    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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