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Das ifo Geschäftsklima und die deutsche Konjunktur

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  • Christian Seiler
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

Abstract

Der bekannteste Indikator für den Wirtschaftsverlauf in Deutschland ist das ifo Geschäftsklima, das sich aus den monatlichen ifo-Umfragen zur Geschäftslage und zu den Geschäftserwartungen zusammensetzt. Die Analysen zeigen, dass das ifo Geschäftsklima ein zuverlässiger Indikator für die deutsche Konjunktur ist. Der Zusammenhang mit den Wachstumsraten des BIP und mit den Wachstumsraten der Industrieproduktion ist höher als bei vergleichbaren Indikatoren, wie etwa dem ZEW-Index. Das ifo Geschäftsklima liegt zeitnah vor, zeigt den Konjunkturverlauf frühzeitig und zuverlässig an und unterliegt keinen Revisionen. Damit gilt das ifo Geschäftsklima zu Recht als der zentrale Indikator für die Beurteilung der Konjunkturentwicklung in Deutschland.

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  • Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima und die deutsche Konjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(18), pages 17-21, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:66:y:2013:i:18:p:17-21
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    Cited by:

    1. Bernhard Kassner & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2018. "Eine Analyse des Antwortverhaltens in der ifo Industrieumfrage," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(03), pages 29-34, February.
    2. Franziska Fobbe & Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Elektromotoren, Energieversorgung und Erziehung: Die Güte der entstehungsseitigen ifo-Kurzfristprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(12), pages 58-63, June.
    3. Pascal Bührig & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2015. "Revisionen der deutschen Industrieproduktion und die ifo Indikatoren," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(21), pages 27-31, November.
    4. Sabine Rumscheidt, 2017. "Die ifo Konjunkturumfrage im Großhandel – Frühindikator für die wirtschaftliche Entwicklung der Branche?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(11), pages 49-54, June.
    5. Sauer,Stefan & Klaus Wohlrabe & Stefan Sauer, 2019. "CEO or Intern − Who Actually Answers the Questionnaires in the ifo Business Survey?," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 20(02), pages 29-31, July.
    6. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    7. Klaus Wohlrabe & Przemyslaw Wojciechowski, 2014. "Die ifo Konjunkturbefragungen im Dienstleistungssektor – Hintergründe, Erklärungen und Performance," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(21), pages 47-53, November.
    8. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2019. "Chef oder Praktikant – wer beantwortet eigentlich die Fragebögen in den ifo Konjunkturumfragen?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 72(03), pages 30-32, February.
    9. Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2017. "Über die richtige Interpretation des ifo Geschäftsklimas als konjunktureller Frühindikator," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(15), pages 42-46, August.
    10. Garnitz, Johanna & Lehmann, Robert & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2019. "Forecasting GDP all over the world using leading indicators based on comprehensive survey data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 51(54), pages 5802-5816.
    11. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72, September.
    12. Przemyslaw Brandt & Christian Grotemeier & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2017. "BVL-Logistikindikator – Hintergründe, Entwicklungen und Ergebnisse," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(20), pages 36-42, October.
    13. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2018. "The New ifo Business Climate Index for Germany," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 19(02), pages 59-64, July.
    14. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2018. "Das neue ifo Geschäftsklima Deutschland," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 71(07), pages 54-60, April.
    15. Garnitz, Johanna & Lehmann, Robert & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2019. "Forecasting GDP all over the world using leading indicators based on comprehensive survey data," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 51(54), pages 5802-5816.
    16. Steffen Henzel & Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2015. "Die Machbarkeit von Kurzfristprognosen für den Freistaat Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 22(04), pages 21-25, August.
    17. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2015. "Die Saisonbereinigung im ifo Konjunkturtest – Umstellung auf das X-13ARIMA-SEATS-Verfahren," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(01), pages 32-42, January.

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    Keywords

    Konjunktur; Konjunkturumfrage; Geschäftsklima; Deutschland;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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