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Das ifo Geschäftsklima und die deutsche Konjunktur

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  • Christian Seiler
  • Klaus Wohlrabe

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Abstract

Der bekannteste Indikator für den Wirtschaftsverlauf in Deutschland ist das ifo Geschäftsklima, das sich aus den monatlichen ifo-Umfragen zur Geschäftslage und zu den Geschäftserwartungen zusammensetzt. Die Analysen zeigen, dass das ifo Geschäftsklima ein zuverlässiger Indikator für die deutsche Konjunktur ist. Der Zusammenhang mit den Wachstumsraten des BIP und mit den Wachstumsraten der Industrieproduktion ist höher als bei vergleichbaren Indikatoren, wie etwa dem ZEW-Index. Das ifo Geschäftsklima liegt zeitnah vor, zeigt den Konjunkturverlauf frühzeitig und zuverlässig an und unterliegt keinen Revisionen. Damit gilt das ifo Geschäftsklima zu Recht als der zentrale Indikator für die Beurteilung der Konjunkturentwicklung in Deutschland.

Suggested Citation

  • Christian Seiler & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2013. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima und die deutsche Konjunktur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 66(18), pages 17-21, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:66:y:2013:i:18:p:17-21
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    1. repec:ces:ifosdt:v:71:y:2018:i:03:p:29-34 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. repec:ces:ifosdt:v:70:y:2017:i:15:p:42-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Franziska Fobbe & Robert Lehmann, 2016. "Elektromotoren, Energieversorgung und Erziehung: Die Güte der entstehungsseitigen ifo-Kurzfristprognose," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(12), pages 58-63, June.
    4. Johanna Garnitz & Robert Lehmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2019. "Forecasting GDP all over the world using leading indicators based on comprehensive survey data," CESifo Working Paper Series 7691, CESifo Group Munich.
    5. Pascal Bührig & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2015. "Revisionen der deutschen Industrieproduktion und die ifo Indikatoren," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(21), pages 27-31, November.
    6. Garnitz, Johanna & Lehmann, Robert & Wohlrabe, Klaus, 2017. "Forecasting GDP all over the World: Evidence from Comprehensive Survey Data," MPRA Paper 81772, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. repec:ces:ifosdt:v:71:y:2018:i:07:p:54-60 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. repec:ces:ifosdt:v:70:y:2017:i:11:p:49-54 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. SteffenHenzel & RobertLehmann & KlausWohlrabe, 2015. "Die Machbarkeit von Kurzfristprognosen für den Freistaat Sachsen," ifo Dresden berichtet, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 22(04), pages 21-25, August.
    10. Stefan Sauer & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2015. "Die Saisonbereinigung im ifo Konjunkturtest – Umstellung auf das X-13ARIMA-SEATS-Verfahren," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(01), pages 32-42, January.
    11. Klaus Wohlrabe & Przemyslaw Brandt, 2014. "Die ifo Konjunkturbefragungen im Dienstleistungssektor – Hintergründe, Erklärungen und Performance," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 67(21), pages 47-53, November.
    12. repec:ces:ifosdt:v:72:y:2019:i:03:p:30-32 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    14. repec:ces:ifosdt:v:70:y:2017:i:20:p:36-42 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Konjunktur; Konjunkturumfrage; Geschäftsklima; Deutschland;

    JEL classification:

    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General

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