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Die ifo Konjunkturuhr auf dem Prüfstand

Author

Listed:
  • Klaus Abberger
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

Das ifo Geschäftsklima für die gewerbliche Wirtschaft gilt seit vielen Jahren als der wichtigste Indikator für die Konjunkturentwicklung in Deutschland. Es ist als Mittelwert der beiden Komponenten Geschäftslage und Geschäftserwartungen für die nächsten sechs Monate definiert. Seit 1993 wird der zyklische Zusammenhang zwischen den beiden Komponenten in einem Vierquadranten-Konjunkturphasenschema, der ifo Konjunkturuhr, dargestellt Anders als beim üblichen Entwicklungsmuster von Indikatoren auf der Zeitachse bewegt sich die Konjunktur in diesem Diagramm kreisförmig im Uhrzeigersinn. Die ifo Konjunktur­uhr besitzt für die Konjunkturanalyse die Vorzüge, dass sie sehr zeitnah verfügbar ist, keinen Revisionen unterliegt und klare Signale ohne größere Störungen gibt. Alles in allem ist die ifo Konjunkturuhr geeignet, den konjunkturellen Verlauf in der Gesamtwirtschaft und die damit verbundene Dynamik allein auf Basis unternehmerischer Urteile und Einschätzungen darzustellen. Allerdings eignet sich die ifo Konjunkturuhr weniger dazu, die einzelnen konjunkturellen Phasen des gefilterten realen Bruttoinlandsprodukts trennscharf voneinander abzugrenzen. Ihre Stärke liegt dagegen in einer sehr guten alternativen Visualisierung der aktuellen Konjunkturentwicklung.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2017. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr auf dem Prüfstand," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 70(04), pages 24-30, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:70:y:2017:i:04:p:24-30
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2009. "Months for Cyclical Dominance und ifo Geschäftsklima," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(07), pages 11-19, April.
    2. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts: A user's guide," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 533-540, May.
    3. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima: Ein zuverlässiger Frühindikator," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(05), pages 25-30, March.
    4. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Ein Präzisionswerk zur Analyse der Wirtschaft," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(23), pages 16-24, December.
    5. Geoffrey H. Moore & Julius Shiskin, 1967. "Indicators of Business Expansions and Contractions," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moor67-2, August.
    6. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Willi Leibfritz, 1993. "Westdeutsche Wirtschaft : wie tief ist die Rezession?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 46(07), pages 10-15, October.
    7. Klaus Abberger & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2006. "Einige Prognoseeigenschaften des ifo Geschäftsklimas - Ein Überblick über die neuere wissenschaftliche Literatur," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 59(22), pages 19-26, November.
    8. Klaus Wohlrabe & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "Der Zusammenhang zwischen Geschäftserwartungen und -lage im ifo Konjunkturtest," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 69(05), pages 42-45, March.
    9. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Zirkulare Korrelation mit dem realen Bruttoinlandsprodukt," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 5(3), pages 179-201, December.
    10. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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