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The Ifo Business Cycle Clock: circular correlation with GDP

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  • Klaus Abberger
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

Abstract

In 1993 the cyclical relationship between the two components of the Ifo Business Climate - business situation and expectations - was presented for the first time in the form of a four quadrant business-cycle scheme: the Ifo Business Cycle Clock. In the meantime there are additional monitoring systems that present cyclical developments in a four quadrant scheme. With these systems, the relationship between the cyclical components and their change over time is shown for selected indicators. This article discusses the relationship between the Ifo Business Cycle Clock and an economic activity monitor constructed to display real GDP in Germany.

Suggested Citation

  • Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "The Ifo Business Cycle Clock: circular correlation with GDP," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(05), pages 32-43, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:63:y:2010:i:05:p:32-43
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2009. "Months for cyclical dominance and the Ifo Business Climate," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(07), pages 11-19, April.
    2. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "The Ifo Business-Cycle Clock: A precision instrument for the analysis of the economy," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(23), pages 16-24, December.
    3. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "The Ifo Business Climate: A reliable leading indicator," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(05), pages 25-30, March.
    4. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
    5. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Markov Switching and the Ifo Business Climate," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(10), pages 25-30, May.
    6. Klaus Abberger & Manuel Birnbrich & Christian Seiler, 2009. "Survey of the survey in distribution - a meta-survey on the Ifo Business Survey," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(21), pages 34-41, November.
    7. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "What is a recession?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(14), pages 44-45, July.
    8. Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1, March.
    9. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2010. "The Ifo Business Cycle Clock: Circular Correlation with the Real GDP," CESifo Working Paper Series 3179, CESifo.
    2. Robert Lehmann, 2023. "The Forecasting Power of the ifo Business Survey," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(1), pages 43-94, March.
    3. Karol Paludkiewicz & Georg Paula & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2010. "The BRIC states: An economic comparison," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 63(23), pages 42-50, December.
    4. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2011. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Zirkulare Korrelation mit dem realen Bruttoinlandsprodukt," AStA Wirtschafts- und Sozialstatistisches Archiv, Springer;Deutsche Statistische Gesellschaft - German Statistical Society, vol. 5(3), pages 179-201, December.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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