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Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Zirkulare Korrelation mit dem Bruttoinlandsprodukt

  • Klaus Abberger
  • Wolfgang Nierhaus

    ()

Im Jahr 1993 wurde vom ifo Institut der zyklische Zusammenhang zwischen den beiden Komponenten des ifo Geschäftsklimas – Geschäftslage und -erwartungen – erstmals in einem Vier-Quadranten-Konjunkturphasenschema dargestellt: die ifo Konjunkturuhr. Inzwischen gibt es weitere Monitorsysteme, die das zyklische Geschehen in einem Vier-Quadranten-Schema abbilden. Bei diesen Systemen wird für ausgewählte Indikatoren der Zusammenhang zwischen der zyklischen Komponente und deren Veränderung aufgezeigt. Im folgenden Beitrag wird auf die Zusammenhänge zwischen der ifo Konjunkturuhr und einem Konjunkturmonitor eingegangen, der für das reale BIP in Deutschland konstruiert wurde.

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Article provided by Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich in its journal ifo Schnelldienst.

Volume (Year): 63 (2010)
Issue (Month): 05 (03)
Pages: 32-43

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Handle: RePEc:ces:ifosdt:v:63:y:2010:i:05:p:32-43
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  1. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2009. "Months for Cyclical Dominance und ifo Geschäftsklima," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(07), pages 11-19, 04.
  2. Canova, Fabio, 1998. "Detrending and business cycle facts," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(3), pages 475-512, May.
  3. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2007. "Das ifo Geschäftsklima: Ein zuverlässiger Frühindikator," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 60(05), pages 25-30, 03.
  4. Klaus Abberger & Manuel Birnbrich & Christian Seiler, 2009. "Der »Test des Tests« im Handel – eine Metaumfrage zum ifo Konjunkturtest," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 62(21), pages 34-41, November.
  5. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Die ifo Konjunkturuhr: Ein Präzisionswerk zur Analyse der Wirtschaft," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(23), pages 16-24, December.
  6. Zarnowitz, Victor, 1992. "Business Cycles," National Bureau of Economic Research Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226978901.
  7. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Was ist eine Rezession?," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(14), pages 44-45, 07.
  8. Klaus Abberger & Wolfgang Nierhaus, 2008. "Markov-Switching und ifo Geschäftsklima," Ifo Schnelldienst, Ifo Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 61(10), pages 25-30, 05.
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