Detrending and the Distributional Properties of U.S. Output Time Series
We study the impact of alternative detrending techniques on the distributional properties of U.S. output time series. We detrend GDP and industrial production time series employing first-differencing, Hodrick-Prescott and bandpass filters. We show that the resulting distributions can be approximated by symmetric Exponential-Power densities, with tails fatter than those of a Gaussian. We also employ frequency-band decomposition procedures finding that fat tails occur more likely at high and medium business-cycle frequencies. These results confirm the robustness of the fat-tail property of detrended output time-series distributions and suggest that business-cycle models should take into account this empirical regularity.
Volume (Year): 29 (2009)
Issue (Month): 4 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| |
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Giulio Bottazzi & Angelo Secchi, 2003. "Sectoral Specifities in the Dynamics of U.S. Manufacturing Firms," LEM Papers Series 2003/18, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2006.
"Are Output Growth-Rate Distributions Fat-Tailed? Some Evidence from OECD Countries,"
LEM Papers Series
2006/23, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
- Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2008. "Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? some evidence from OECD countries," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(5), pages 639-669.
- Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2006. "Are output growth-rate distributions fat-tailed? Some evidence from OECD countries," Sciences Po publications 36, Sciences Po.
- Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2006. "Are Output Growth-Rate Distributions Fat-Tailed? Some Evidence from OECD Countries," Working Papers 36, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1995.
"Measuring Business Cycles Approximate Band-Pass Filters for Economic Time Series,"
NBER Working Papers
5022, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Marianne Baxter & Robert G. King, 1999. "Measuring Business Cycles: Approximate Band-Pass Filters For Economic Time Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 575-593, November.
- Bottazzi, Giulio & Secchi, Angelo, 2003. "Why are distributions of firm growth rates tent-shaped?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 80(3), pages 415-420, September.
- James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1998.
"Business Cycle Fluctuations in U.S. Macroeconomic Time Series,"
NBER Working Papers
6528, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Business cycle fluctuations in us macroeconomic time series," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 1, pages 3-64 Elsevier.
- Carolina Castaldi & Giovanni Dosi, 2009. "The patterns of output growth of firms and countries: Scale invariances and scale specificities," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 37(3), pages 475-495, December.
- Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 1999.
"The Band Pass Filter,"
NBER Working Papers
7257, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Victor Zarnowitz, 1992. "Business Cycles: Theory, History, Indicators, and Forecasting," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number zarn92-1, April.
- Simona Delle Chiaie, 2009. "The sensitivity of DSGE models’ results to data detrending," Working Papers 157, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
- Canova, Fabio, 1993.
"Detrending and Business Cycle Facts,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
782, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Fabio Canova, 1994.
"Does detrending matter for the determination of the reference cycle and the selection of turning points?,"
Economics Working Papers
113, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Mar 1995.
- Canova, Fabio, 1999. "Does Detrending Matter for the Determination of the Reference Cycle and the Selection of Turning Points?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(452), pages 126-50, January.
- Giulio Bottazzi & Angelo Secchi, 2006. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation of the Symmetric and Asymmetric Exponential Power Distribution," LEM Papers Series 2006/19, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ebl:ecbull:eb-09-00650. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (John P. Conley)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.