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Faraway, so close : coupled climate and economic dynamics in an agent based integrated assessment model

Author

Listed:
  • Francesco Lamperti

    (Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa, Italy)

  • Giovanni Dosi

    (Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa, Italy)

  • Mauro Napoletano

    (OFCE Sciences Po Paris France)

  • Andrea Roventini

    (Scuola Superiore Sant'Anna, Pisa, Italy)

  • Alessandro Sapio

    (Parthenope University of Naples, Naples, Italy)

Abstract

In this paper we develop the first agent-based integrated assessment model, which offers an alternative to standard, computable general-equilibrium frameworks. The Dystopian Schumpeter meeting Keynes (DSK) model is composed of heterogeneous firms belonging to capital-good, consumption-good and energy sectors. Production and energy generation lead to greenhouse gas emissions, which affect temperature dynamics in a non-linear way. Increasing temperature triggers climate damages hitting, at the micro-level, workers’ labor productivity, energy efficiency, capital stock and inventories of firms. In that, aggregate damages are emerging properties of the out-of-equilibrium interactions among heterogeneous and boundedly rational agents. We find the DSK model is able to account for a wide ensemble of micro and macro empirical regularities concerning both economic and climate dynamics. Moreover, different types of shocks have heterogeneous impact on output growth, unemployment rate, and the likelihood of economic crises. Finally, we show that the magnitude and the uncertainty associated to climate change impacts increase over time, and that climate damages much larger than those estimated through standard IAMs. Our results point to the presence of tipping points and irreversible trajectories, thereby suggesting the need of urgent policy interventions

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Lamperti & Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Alessandro Sapio, 2017. "Faraway, so close : coupled climate and economic dynamics in an agent based integrated assessment model," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2017-10, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
  • Handle: RePEc:fce:doctra:1710
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    Keywords

    Climate change ; agent-based models; integrated assessment; macroeconomics dynamics; climate damages.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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