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Faraway, so Close: Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics in an Agent-Based Integrated Assessment Model

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  • Francesco Lamperti
  • Giovanni Dosi
  • Mauro Napoletano
  • Andrea Roventini
  • Alessandro Sapio

Abstract

In this paper we develop the first agent-based integrated assessment model, which offers an alternative to standard, computable general-equilibrium frameworks. The Dystopian Schumpeter meeting Keynes (DSK) model is composed of heterogeneous firms belonging to capital-good, consumption-good and energy sectors. Production and energy generation leads to greenhouse gas emissions, which affect temperature dynamics in a non-linear way. Increasing temperature triggers climate damages hitting, at the micro-level, workers' labor productivity, energy efficiency, capital stock and inventories of firms. In that, aggregate damages are emerging properties of the out-of-equilibrium interactions among heterogeneous and boundedly rational agents. We find the DSK model is able to account for a wide ensemble of micro and macro empirical regularities concerning both economic and climate dynamics. Moreover, different types of shocks have heterogeneous impact on output growth, unemployment rate, and the likelihood of economic crises. Finally, we show that the magnitude and the uncertainty associated to climate change impacts increase over time, and that climate damages are much larger than those estimated through standard integrated assessment models. Our results point to the presence of tipping points and irreversible trajectories, thereby suggesting the need of urgent policy interventions.

Suggested Citation

  • Francesco Lamperti & Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Alessandro Sapio, 2017. "Faraway, so Close: Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics in an Agent-Based Integrated Assessment Model," LEM Papers Series 2017/12, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
  • Handle: RePEc:ssa:lemwps:2017/12
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    Cited by:

    1. Francesco Lamperti & Andrea Roventini & Amir Sani, 2017. "Agent-Based Model Calibration using Machine Learning Surrogates," Sciences Po publications 2017-09, Sciences Po.
    2. Balint, T. & Lamperti, F. & Mandel, A. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2017. "Complexity and the Economics of Climate Change: A Survey and a Look Forward," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 138(C), pages 252-265.
    3. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emmanuele Russo, 2018. "Endogenous growth and global divergence in a multi-country agent - based model," Sciences Po publications 2018-02, Sciences Po.
    4. Yannis Dafermos & Maria Nikolaidi & Giorgos Galanis, 2017. "Climate change, financial stability and monetary policy," Working Papers PKWP1712, Post Keynesian Economics Study Group (PKSG).
    5. Emanuele Russo, 2017. "Harrodian instability in decentralized economies: an agent-based approach," LEM Papers Series 2017/17, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    6. Giorgio Fagiolo & Mattia Guerini & Francesco Lamperti & Alessio Moneta & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Validation of Agent-Based Models in Economics and Finance," LEM Papers Series 2017/23, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Giovanni Dosi & Andrea Roventini & Emanuele Russo, 2017. "Endogenous growth and global divergence in a multi-country agent-based model," LEM Papers Series 2017/32, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.

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    Keywords

    Climate Change; Agent-Based Models; Integrated Assessment; Macroeconomic Dynamics; Climate Damages.;

    JEL classification:

    • C63 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computational Techniques
    • Q40 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - General
    • Q50 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - General
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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