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Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison

Author

Listed:
  • Kenneth Gillingham

    (School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, Yale University)

  • William D. Nordhaus

    () (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)

  • David Anthoff

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Geoffrey Blanford

    (Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI))

  • Valentina Bosetti

    (Bocconi University)

  • Peter Christensen

    (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign)

  • Haewan McJeon

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland)

  • John Reilly

    (Sloan School, MIT)

  • Paul Sztorc

    (Dept. of Economics, Yale University)

Abstract

The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity. It estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insights on tail events.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth Gillingham & William D. Nordhaus & David Anthoff & Geoffrey Blanford & Valentina Bosetti & Peter Christensen & Haewan McJeon & John Reilly & Paul Sztorc, 2015. "Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2022, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2022
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. William D. Nordhaus & Andrew Moffat, 2017. "Evolution of Modeling of the Economics of Global Warming: Changes in the DICE model, 1992-2017," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2096, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. repec:spr:climat:v:148:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2218-y is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Lamperti, F. & Dosi, G. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2018. "Faraway, So Close: Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics in an Agent-based Integrated Assessment Model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 315-339.
    4. William D. Nordhaus & Andrew Moffat, 2017. "A Survey of Global Impacts of Climate Change: Replication, Survey Methods, and a Statistical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 23646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. William D. Nordhaus, 2016. "Projections and Uncertainties About Climate Change in an Era of Minimal Climate Policies," NBER Working Papers 22933, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Rezai, Armon & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2017. "Climate policies under climate model uncertainty: Max-min and min-max regret," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S1), pages 4-16.
    7. Elmar Kriegler & Ioanna Mouratiadou & Gunnar Luderer & Jae Edmonds & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2016. "Introduction to the RoSE special issue on the impact of economic growth and fossil fuel availability on climate protection," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 1-6, May.
    8. repec:kap:enreec:v:73:y:2019:i:1:d:10.1007_s10640-018-0262-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. repec:eee:ecolec:v:147:y:2018:i:c:p:383-398 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:spr:ieaple:v:18:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s10784-018-9406-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Sergey Paltsev, 2016. "Energy Scenarios: The Value and Limits of Scenario Analysis," EcoMod2016 9371, EcoMod.
    12. William D. Nordhaus, 2017. "Evolution of Assessments of the Economics of Global Warming: Changes in the DICE model, 1992 – 2017," NBER Working Papers 23319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:7:p:2299-:d:155981 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2019. "Regional Climate Policy under Deep Uncertainty: Robust Control, Hot Spots and Learning," DEOS Working Papers 1903, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    15. William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2019. "Regional Climate Policy under Deep Uncertainty," DEOS Working Papers 1901, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    16. Cai, Yongyang & Golub, Alla A. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2016. "Developing Long-run Agricultural R&D Policy in the Face of Uncertain Economic Growth," 2017 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 6-8, 2017, Chicago, Illinois 250111, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Elmar Kriegler & Ioanna Mouratiadou & Gunnar Luderer & Nico Bauer & Robert J. Brecha & Katherine Calvin & Enrica Cian & Jae Edmonds & Kejun Jiang & Massimo Tavoni & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2016. "Will economic growth and fossil fuel scarcity help or hinder climate stabilization?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 7-22, May.
    18. Rezai, Armon & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2017. "Climate policies under climate model uncertainty: Max-min and min-max regret," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S1), pages 4-16.
    19. Marco Letta & Richard S. J. Tol, 2019. "Weather, Climate and Total Factor Productivity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(1), pages 283-305, May.
    20. repec:eee:reensy:v:163:y:2017:i:c:p:109-120 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Cai, Yongyang & Brock, William & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2016. "Climate Change Economics and Heat Transport across the Globe: Spatial-DSICE," 2017 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 6-8, 2017, Chicago, Illinois 251833, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    22. Stienen, Valentijn & Engwerda, Jacob, 2018. "Measuring Impact of Uncertainty in a Stylized Macro-Economic Climate Model within a Dynamic Game Perspective," Discussion Paper 2018-007, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change; Modeling; Uncertainty; Statistics; Integrated assessment models;

    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • H4 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods

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