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Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison

Author

Listed:
  • Kenneth Gillingham

    (School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, Yale University)

  • William D. Nordhaus

    (Cowles Foundation, Yale University)

  • David Anthoff

    (University of California, Berkeley)

  • Geoffrey Blanford

    (Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI))

  • Valentina Bosetti

    (Bocconi University)

  • Peter Christensen

    (University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign)

  • Haewan McJeon

    (Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland)

  • John Reilly

    (Sloan School, MIT)

  • Paul Sztorc

    (Dept. of Economics, Yale University)

Abstract

The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity. It estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insights on tail events.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth Gillingham & William D. Nordhaus & David Anthoff & Geoffrey Blanford & Valentina Bosetti & Peter Christensen & Haewan McJeon & John Reilly & Paul Sztorc, 2015. "Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2022, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    • Handle: RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2022
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    File URL: https://cowles.yale.edu/sites/default/files/files/pub/d20/d2022.pdf
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    JEL classification:

    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics
    • C6 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling
    • H4 - Public Economics - - Publicly Provided Goods

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