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Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison

Author

Listed:
  • Kenneth Gillingham
  • William D. Nordhaus
  • David Anthoff
  • Geoffrey Blanford
  • Valentina Bosetti
  • Peter Christensen
  • Haewon McJeon
  • John Reilly
  • Paul Sztorc

Abstract

The economics of climate change involves a vast array of uncertainties, complicating both the analysis and development of climate policy. This study presents the results of the first comprehensive study of uncertainty in climate change using multiple integrated assessment models. The study looks at model and parametric uncertainties for population, total factor productivity, and climate sensitivity. It estimates the pdfs of key output variables, including CO2 concentrations, temperature, damages, and the social cost of carbon (SCC). One key finding is that parametric uncertainty is more important than uncertainty in model structure. Our resulting pdfs also provide insights on tail events.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth Gillingham & William D. Nordhaus & David Anthoff & Geoffrey Blanford & Valentina Bosetti & Peter Christensen & Haewon McJeon & John Reilly & Paul Sztorc, 2015. "Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison," NBER Working Papers 21637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21637
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    1. repec:spr:climat:v:148:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s10584-018-2218-y is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Lamperti, F. & Dosi, G. & Napoletano, M. & Roventini, A. & Sapio, A., 2018. "Faraway, So Close: Coupled Climate and Economic Dynamics in an Agent-based Integrated Assessment Model," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 315-339.
    3. repec:eee:eneeco:v:68:y:2017:i:s1:p:4-16 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Marco Letta & Richard S. J. Tol, 2019. "Weather, Climate and Total Factor Productivity," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 73(1), pages 283-305, May.
    5. repec:eee:reensy:v:163:y:2017:i:c:p:109-120 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. William D. Nordhaus & Andrew Moffat, 2017. "A Survey of Global Impacts of Climate Change: Replication, Survey Methods, and a Statistical Analysis," NBER Working Papers 23646, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. repec:eee:ecolec:v:147:y:2018:i:c:p:383-398 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Sergey Paltsev, 2016. "Energy Scenarios: The Value and Limits of Scenario Analysis," EcoMod2016 9371, EcoMod.
    9. William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2019. "Regional Climate Policy under Deep Uncertainty: Robust Control, Hot Spots and Learning," DEOS Working Papers 1903, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    10. William D. Nordhaus & Andrew Moffat, 2017. "Evolution of Modeling of the Economics of Global Warming: Changes in the DICE model, 1992-2017," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2096, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    11. William D. Nordhaus, 2017. "Evolution of Assessments of the Economics of Global Warming: Changes in the DICE model, 1992 – 2017," NBER Working Papers 23319, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Cai, Yongyang & Golub, Alla A. & Hertel, Thomas W., 2016. "Developing Long-run Agricultural R&D Policy in the Face of Uncertain Economic Growth," 2017 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 6-8, 2017, Chicago, Illinois 250111, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    13. Rezai, Armon & van der Ploeg, Frederick, 2017. "Climate policies under climate model uncertainty: Max-min and min-max regret," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(S1), pages 4-16.
    14. William D. Nordhaus, 2016. "Projections and uncertainties about climate change in an era of minimal climate policies," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2057, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    15. Elmar Kriegler & Ioanna Mouratiadou & Gunnar Luderer & Jae Edmonds & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2016. "Introduction to the RoSE special issue on the impact of economic growth and fossil fuel availability on climate protection," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 1-6, May.
    16. repec:spr:ieaple:v:18:y:2018:i:4:d:10.1007_s10784-018-9406-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. repec:gam:jsusta:v:10:y:2018:i:7:p:2299-:d:155981 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. William Brock & Anastasios Xepapadeas, 2019. "Regional Climate Policy under Deep Uncertainty," DEOS Working Papers 1901, Athens University of Economics and Business.
    19. Elmar Kriegler & Ioanna Mouratiadou & Gunnar Luderer & Nico Bauer & Robert J. Brecha & Katherine Calvin & Enrica Cian & Jae Edmonds & Kejun Jiang & Massimo Tavoni & Ottmar Edenhofer, 2016. "Will economic growth and fossil fuel scarcity help or hinder climate stabilization?," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 136(1), pages 7-22, May.
    20. Cai, Yongyang & Brock, William & Xepapadeas, Anastasios, 2016. "Climate Change Economics and Heat Transport across the Globe: Spatial-DSICE," 2017 Allied Social Sciences Association (ASSA) Annual Meeting, January 6-8, 2017, Chicago, Illinois 251833, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    21. Stienen, Valentijn & Engwerda, Jacob, 2018. "Measuring Impact of Uncertainty in a Stylized Macro-Economic Climate Model within a Dynamic Game Perspective," Discussion Paper 2018-007, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O44 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Environment and Growth
    • Q48 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Government Policy
    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming

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