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World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century

Editor

Listed:
  • Lutz, Wolfgang
    (Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital (IIASA, VID/ OAW, WU))

  • Butz, William P.
    (International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital)

  • KC, Samir
    (Wittgenstein Centre)

Abstract

This book addresses systematically and quantitatively the role of educational attainment in global population trends and models. Seven background chapters summarize past trends in fertility, mortality, migration, and education; examine relevant theories and identify key determining factors; and set the assumptions that are subsequently translated into alternative scenario projections to 2100. These assumptions derive from a global survey of hundreds of experts and five expert meetings on as many continents. Another chapter details their translation into multi-dimensional projections by age, sex, and level of education. The book's final chapters analyse the results, emphasizing alternative trends in human capital, new ways of studying ageing and the quantification of alternative population, and education pathways in the context of global sustainable development. An appendix and associated web link present detailed results for all countries. The book shows that adding education to age and sex substantially alters the way we see the future. Contributors to this volume - Guy Abel, Wittgenstein Centre, Vienna Institute of Demography Bilal Barakat, Wittgenstein Centre, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Stuart Basten, University of Oxford Ramon Bauer, Wittgenstein Centre, Vienna Institute of Demography William P. Butz, Wittgenstein Centre Graziella Caselli, University of Rome Sven Drefahl, Stockholm University and Karolinska Institute Rachel Durham, Wittgenstein Centre, Vienna University of Economics and Business Regina Fuchs, Wittgenstein Centre, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Alessandra Garbero, International Fund for Agricultural Development Anne Goujon, Wittgenstein Centre, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Samir KC, Wittgenstein Centre, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Wolfgang Lutz, Wittgenstein Centre for Demography and Global Human Capital Marc Luy, Wittgenstein Centre, Vienna Institute of Demography Elsie Pamuk, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Michaela Potanckova, Wittgenstein Centre, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Fernando Riosmena, University of Colorado at Boulder Nikola Sander, Wittgenstein Centre, Vienna Institute of Demography Warren Sanderson, Stony Brook University, New York and Wittgenstein Centre, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Sergei Scherbov, Wittgenstein Centre, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Vegard Skirbekk, Wittgenstein Centre, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Tomas Sobotka, Wittgenstein Centre, Vienna Institute of Demography Erich Striessnig, Wittgenstein Centre, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Christian Wegner-Siegmundt, Wittgenstein Centre, Vienna Institute of Demography Krystof Zeman, Wittgenstein Centre, Vienna Institute of Demography

Suggested Citation

  • Lutz, Wolfgang & Butz, William P. & KC, Samir (ed.), 2014. "World Population and Human Capital in the Twenty-First Century," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198703167.
  • Handle: RePEc:oxp:obooks:9780198703167
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Gregory Casey & Soheil Shayegh & Juan Moreno-Cruz & Martin Bunzl & Oded Galor & Ken Caldeira, 2019. "The Impact of Climate Change on Fertility," Working Papers 2019-2, Brown University, Department of Economics.
    2. Bilal Barakat & Jesus Crespo Cuaresma, 2017. "Credit where credit is due: an approach to education returns based on Shapley values," Education Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 25(5), pages 533-541, September.
    3. Thu Dao & Frédéric Docquier & Mathilde Maurel & Pierre Schaus, 2018. "Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01743799, HAL.
    4. Meng Xu & Helge Brunborg & Joel E. Cohen, 2017. "Evaluating multi-regional population projections with Taylor’s law of mean–variance scaling and its generalisation," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 79-99, March.
    5. Kenneth Gillingham & William D. Nordhaus & David Anthoff & Geoffrey Blanford & Valentina Bosetti & Peter Christensen & Haewon McJeon & John Reilly & Paul Sztorc, 2015. "Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison," NBER Working Papers 21637, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Felix C. Tropf & Jornt J. Mandemakers, 2017. "Is the Association Between Education and Fertility Postponement Causal? The Role of Family Background Factors," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 54(1), pages 71-91, February.
    7. Emily Ho & David V. Budescu & Valentina Bosetti & Detlef P. Vuuren & Klaus Keller, 2019. "Not all carbon dioxide emission scenarios are equally likely: a subjective expert assessment," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 155(4), pages 545-561, August.
    8. Anna Katharina Raggl, 2017. "Migration intentions in CESEE – a descriptive analysis," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue Q4/17, pages 52-69.
    9. Olivera, Javier, 2019. "The distribution of pension wealth in Europe," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 13(C), pages 30-42.
    10. Yen-hsin Alice Cheng & Elke Loichinger, 2017. "The Future Labor Force of an Aging Taiwan: The Importance of Education and Female Labor Supply," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 36(3), pages 441-466, June.
    11. Peter Huber & Doris A. Oberdabernig & Jesús Crespo Cuaresma & Anna Raggl, 2015. "Migration in an Ageing Europe: What are the Challenges? WWWforEurope Working Paper No. 79," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 57886, June.
    12. Stuart Gietel-Basten & Silvia E Giorguli Saucedo & Sergei Scherbov, 2020. "Prospective measures of aging for Central and South America," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(7), pages 1-14, July.
    13. Marilia R. Nepomuceno & Cássio M. Turra, 2019. "Assessing the quality of self-reported education in Brazil with intercensal survivorship ratios," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2019-022, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    14. Emilie Dargaud & Frédéric Jouneau-Sion, 2019. "The good MOOC and the universities," Working Papers halshs-01996582, HAL.
    15. Warren C Sanderson & Sergei Scherbov & Patrick Gerland, 2017. "Probabilistic population aging," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(6), pages 1-12, June.
    16. Daniel Kuehnle & Michael Oberfichtner, 2020. "Does Starting Universal Childcare Earlier Influence Children’s Skill Development?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(1), pages 61-98, February.
    17. Marília Nepomuceno & Cássio Turra, 2020. "Assessing the quality of education reporting in Brazilian censuses," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 42(15), pages 441-460.
    18. Thu Hien DAO & Frédéric DOCQUIER & Mathilde MAUREL & Pierre SCHAUS, 2017. "Global Migration in the 20th and 21st Centuries: the Unstoppable Force of Demography," Working Paper 96d89f28-0e80-4703-9b33-6, Agence française de développement.
    19. Tropf, Felix C & Mandemakers, Jornt J, 2017. "Is the Association Between Education and Fertility Postponement Causal? The Role of Family Background Factors," OSF Preprints dqrrx, Center for Open Science.
    20. Emilie Dargaud & Frédéric Jouneau-Sion, 2019. "The good MOOC and the universities," Working Papers 1905, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
    21. Olivera, Javier & Andreoli, Francesco & Leist, Anja K. & Chauvel, Louis, 2018. "Inequality in old age cognition across the world," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 179-188.
    22. Miguel Sánchez-Romero & Gemma Abio & Concepció Patxot & Guadalupe Souto, 2018. "Contribution of demography to economic growth," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 9(1), pages 27-64, March.
    23. Yvan Guillemette & David Turner, 2018. "The Long View: Scenarios for the World Economy to 2060," OECD Economic Policy Papers 22, OECD Publishing.
    24. Bilal Barakat & Robin Shields, 2019. "Just Another Level? Comparing Quantitative Patterns of Global Expansion of School and Higher Education Attainment," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 56(3), pages 917-934, June.

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