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Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy

Author

Listed:
  • Elmar Kriegler
  • Nils Petermann
  • Volker Krey

    (IIASA - International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg])

  • Valeria Jana Schwanitz
  • Gunnar Luderer

    (PIK - Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research)

  • Shuichi Ashina
  • Valentina Bosetti
  • Jiyong Eom
  • Alban Kitous

    (IPTS - Joint Research Centre - Commission Européenne)

  • Aurélie Méjean

    (CIRED - centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - Cirad - Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - AgroParisTech - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Leonidas Paroussos
  • Fuminori Sano
  • Hal Turton

    (PSI - Paul Scherrer Institute)

  • Charlie Wilson
  • Detlef P. van Vuuren

    (PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Universiteit Utrecht / Utrecht University [Utrecht])

Abstract

Integrated assessments of how climate policy interacts with energy-economy systems can be performed by a variety of models with different functional structures. In order to provide insights into why results differ between models, this article proposes a diagnostic scheme that can be applied to a wide range of models. Diagnostics can uncover patterns of model behavior and indicate how results differ between model types. Such insights are informative since model behavior can have a significant impact on projections of climate change mitigation costs and other policy-relevant information. The authors propose diagnostic indicators to characterize model responses to carbon price signals and test these in a diagnostic study of 11 global models. Indicators describe the magnitude of emission abatement and the associated costs relative to a harmonized baseline, the relative changes in carbon intensity and energy intensity, and the extent of transformation in the energy system. This study shows a correlation among indicators suggesting that models can be classified into groups based on common patterns of behavior in response to carbon pricing. Such a classification can help to explain variations among policy-relevant model results.

Suggested Citation

  • Elmar Kriegler & Nils Petermann & Volker Krey & Valeria Jana Schwanitz & Gunnar Luderer & Shuichi Ashina & Valentina Bosetti & Jiyong Eom & Alban Kitous & Aurélie Méjean & Leonidas Paroussos & Fuminor, 2015. "Diagnostic indicators for integrated assessment models of climate policy," Post-Print hal-01086069, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01086069
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2013.09.020
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