Forecaster Diversity and the Benefits of Combining Forecasts
The expected error variance of a combined forecast is necessarily lower than that of an individual forecast, but in practice there may be considerable variation around these expected values. This paper introduces a measure of the benefit from combining, the probability of a reduction in error variance, which recognizes this problem. The measure is applied to data on the forecasts and forecasting methods of a panel of U.S. economists to determine how the benefits of combining vary with the number of forecasts combined, and with the diversity in theories and techniques among the component forecasts.
Volume (Year): 41 (1995)
Issue (Month): 1 (January)
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 7240 Parkway Drive, Suite 300, Hanover, MD 21076 USA|
Web page: http://www.informs.org/
More information through EDIRC
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:41:y:1995:i:1:p:68-75. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Mirko Janc)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.