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A Guide to Global Population Projections

Author

Listed:
  • Brian C. O'Neill

    (University of Denver)

  • Deborah Balk

    (City University of New York)

  • Melanie Brickman

    (Columbia University)

  • Markos Ezra

    (Brown University)

Abstract

Interdisciplinary studies that draw on long-term, global population projections often make limited use of projection results, due at least in part to the historically opaque nature of the projection process. We present a guide to such projections aimed at researchers and educators who would benefit from putting them to greater use. Drawing on new practices and new thinking on uncertainty, methodology, and the likely future courses of fertility and life expectancy, we discuss who makes projections and how, and the key assumptions upon which they are based. We also compare methodology and recent results from prominent institutions and provide a guide to other sources of demographic information, pointers to projection results, and an entry point to key literature in the field.

Suggested Citation

  • Brian C. O'Neill & Deborah Balk & Melanie Brickman & Markos Ezra, 2001. "A Guide to Global Population Projections," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 4(8), pages 203-288.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:4:y:2001:i:8
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2001.4.8
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
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    2. Atsede D. Tegegne & Marianne Penker & Maria Wurzinger, 2016. "Participatory Demographic Scenarios Addressing Uncertainty and Transformative Change in Ethiopia," Systemic Practice and Action Research, Springer, vol. 29(3), pages 277-296, June.
    3. Elitzur, Moshe & Kaplan, Scott & Zilberman, David, 2020. "Hindered growth," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 111(C).
    4. Jiang, Yunyun & Zhao, Tianhao & Zheng, Haitao, 2021. "Population aging and its effects on the gap of urban public health insurance in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    5. Yinhua mai & Xiujian Peng & Wei Chen, 2009. "How fast is population ageing in China?," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-208, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    6. Gillingham, Kenneth & Nordhaus, William & Anthoff, David & Bosetti, Valentina & McJeon, Haewon & Blanford, Geoffrey & Christensen, Peter & Reilly, John & Sztorc, Paul, "undated". "Modeling Uncertainty in Climate Change: A Multi-Model Comparison," MITP: Mitigation, Innovation and Transformation Pathways 232219, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    7. Chen Wei & Liu Jinju, 2009. "Future Population Trends in China: 2005-2050," Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre Working Papers g-191, Victoria University, Centre of Policy Studies/IMPACT Centre.
    8. Ammara Cheema, 2013. "Upcoming picture of ageing population: Pakistan," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 47(5), pages 2399-2413, August.
    9. Livia Elisa Ortensi & Alessio Menonna, 2017. "Migrating with Special Needs? Projections of Flows of Migrant Women with Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting Toward Europe 2016–2030," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 33(4), pages 559-583, October.
    10. Xiaolei Liu & Xuefeng Cui & Reshmita Nath, 2015. "Future Arable Land Requirement of Pig Production in China," Journal of Agricultural Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(1), pages 139-139, December.
    11. Kashnitsky, Ilya & de Beer, Joop & van Wissen, Leo, 2017. "Decomposition of regional convergence in population aging across Europe," OSF Preprints ykqbv, Center for Open Science.
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    14. V. V. Yumaguzin & M. V. Vinnik, 2022. "Forecast of Population Size and Demographic Burden in Russia up to 2100," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 33(4), pages 422-431, August.

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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