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New Developments in the Methodology of Expert- and Argument-Based Probabilistic Population Forecasting

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  • W. Lutz
  • P. Saariluoma
  • W.C. Sanderson
  • S. Scherbov

Abstract

All population projections are based in one form or another on expert judgement about likely future trends, structural continuity, etc. Although experts are clearly superior to lay people in their field of expertise, when it comes to forecasting they may make serious errors and can be as ignorant as anybody. In the context of expert-based probabilistic population projections, this issue is receiving even more attention. In this paper we argue that information about the future cannot be true for the reason that it is being presented by an acknowledged authority (institution or person), nor is it acceptable to resolve scientific issues on the ground of voting or concert. As an alternative we propose the concept of argument-based expert opinion. Under this approach any structural and trend assumption needs to be based on explicit argumentation rather than implicit judgement.

Suggested Citation

  • W. Lutz & P. Saariluoma & W.C. Sanderson & S. Scherbov, 2000. "New Developments in the Methodology of Expert- and Argument-Based Probabilistic Population Forecasting," Working Papers ir00020, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis.
    • Handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir00020
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Pflaumer, Peter, 1988. "Confidence intervals for population projections based on Monte Carlo methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 135-142.
    2. Lee, Ronald D., 1993. "Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: Age distribution, range, and ultimate level," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 187-202, August.
    3. Shripad Tuljapurkar, 1997. "Taking the measure of uncertainty," Nature, Nature, vol. 387(6635), pages 760-761, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Brian C. O'Neill & Deborah Balk & Melanie Brickman & Markos Ezra, 2001. "A Guide to Global Population Projections," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 4(8), pages 203-288.

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