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New Developments in the Methodology of Expert- and Argument-Based Probabilistic Population Forecasting

  • W. Lutz
  • P. Saariluoma
  • W.C. Sanderson
  • S. Scherbov

All population projections are based in one form or another on expert judgement about likely future trends, structural continuity, etc. Although experts are clearly superior to lay people in their field of expertise, when it comes to forecasting they may make serious errors and can be as ignorant as anybody. In the context of expert-based probabilistic population projections, this issue is receiving even more attention. In this paper we argue that information about the future cannot be true for the reason that it is being presented by an acknowledged authority (institution or person), nor is it acceptable to resolve scientific issues on the ground of voting or concert. As an alternative we propose the concept of argument-based expert opinion. Under this approach any structural and trend assumption needs to be based on explicit argumentation rather than implicit judgement.

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Paper provided by International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis in its series Working Papers with number ir00020.

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Date of creation: Mar 2000
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wop:iasawp:ir00020
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  1. Pflaumer, Peter, 1988. "Confidence intervals for population projections based on Monte Carlo methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 135-142.
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