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Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility

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  • Hans-Peter Kohler

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • José Antonio Ortega

    (Universidad de Salamanca)

Abstract

In this paper we introduce a new set of tempo-adjusted period parity progression measures in order to account for two distinct implications caused by delays in childbearing: tempo distortions imply an underestimation of the quantum of fertility in observed period data, and the fertility aging effect reduces higher parity births because the respective exposure is shifted to older ages when the probability of having another child is quite low. Our measures remove the former distortion and provide means to assess the latter aging effect. The measures therefore provide a unified toolkit of fertility indices that (a) facilitate the description and analysis of past period fertility trends in terms of synthetic cohort measures, and (b) allow the projection of the timing, level and distribution of cohort fertility conditional on a specific postponement scenario. Due to their explicit relation to cohort behavior, these measures extend and improve the existing adjustment of the total fertility rate. We apply these methods to Sweden from 1970 to 1999.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(6), pages 91-144, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:6:y:2002:i:6
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    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol6/6/6-6.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Joshua R. Goldstein, 2010. "A behavioral Gompertz model for cohort fertility schedules in low and moderate fertility populations," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2010-021, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Tomáš Sobotka & Anna Št’astná & Krystof Zeman & Dana Hamplová & Vladimíra Kantorová, 2008. "Czech Republic: A rapid transformation of fertility and family behaviour after the collapse of state socialism," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(14), pages 403-454, July.
    3. Ryuichi Kaneko, 2003. "Elaboration of the Coale-McNeil Nuptiality Model as The Generalized Log Gamma Distribution," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 9(10), pages 223-262, November.
    4. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    5. Faragó, Miklós, 2011. "Paritásfüggő összetett termékenységi mutatók Magyarországon és különbségeik dekompozíciója
      [Parity-dependent complex indicators of fertility in Hungary and decomposition of differences between them
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(11), pages 970-993.
    6. International Monetary Fund, 2007. "Romania; Selected Issues," IMF Staff Country Reports 07/220, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Kenneth Harttgen & Sebastian Vollmer, 2014. "A Reversal in the Relationship of Human Development With Fertility?," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 51(1), pages 173-184, February.
    8. Ralph Lattimore & Clinton Pobke, 2008. "Recent Trends in Australian Fertility," Staff Working Papers 0806, Productivity Commission, Government of Australia.
    9. Berde, Éva & Kovács, Eszter, 2016. "A svéd és a magyar termékenységi arányszám összehasonlítása
      [Comparison of Swedish and Hungarian fertility levels]
      ," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(12), pages 1348-1374.
    10. Allan Puur & Martin Klesment, 2011. "Signs Of A Stable Or Provisional Increase In Fertility? Reflections On Developments In Estonia," Demográfia English Edition, Hungarian Demographic Research Institute, vol. 54(5), pages 31-55.
    11. Ortega, Jose Antonio & Poncela, Pilar, 2005. "Joint forecasts of Southern European fertility rates with non-stationary dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 539-550.
    12. Francisca Nordfalk & Ulla A. Hvidtfeldt & Niels Keiding, 2015. "TFR for males in Denmark," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 32(52), pages 1421-1434, June.
    13. FFF1Gunnar NNN1Andersson, 2004. "Childbearing Developments in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden from the 1970s to the 1990s: A Comparison," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(7), pages 155-176, April.
    14. Griffith Feeney & John Bongaarts, 2006. "The Quantum and Tempo of Life-Cycle Events," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 115-151.
    15. Gunnar Andersson, 2003. "Childbearing developments in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden from the 1970s to the 1990s: a comparison," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2003-036, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    16. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures:," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(7), pages 145-190, March.
    17. Hans-Peter Kohler & Iliana Kohler, 2001. "Fertility decline in Russia after 1990: the role of economic uncertainty and labor market crises," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-013, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    18. Tomas Frejka & Tomáš Sobotka, 2008. "Overview Chapter 1: Fertility in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(3), pages 15-46, July.
    19. Bongoh Kye, 2012. "Cohort Effects or Period Effects? Fertility Decline in South Korea in the Twentieth Century," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 31(3), pages 387-415, June.
    20. Tomáš Sobotka, 2003. "Tempo-quantum and period-cohort interplay in fertility changes in Europe," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 8(6), pages 151-214, April.
    21. Paraskevi Peristera & Anastasia Kostaki, 2007. "Modeling fertility in modern populations," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 16(6), pages 141-194, March.
    22. Tomás Sobotka, 2004. "Is Lowest-Low Fertility in Europe Explained by the Postponement of Childbearing?," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 30(2), pages 195-220.
    23. Irena E. Kotowska & Janina Jóźwiak & Anna Matysiak & Anna Baranowska-Rataj, 2008. "Poland: Fertility decline as a response to profound societal and labour market changes?," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 19(22), pages 795-854, July.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cohort fertility; fertility; fertility postponement; fertility projection; low fertility; parity progression; parity progression measures; Sweden; tempo adjustment;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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