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Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility

  • Hans-Peter Kohler

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • José Antonio Ortega

    (Universidad de Salamanca)

In this paper we introduce a new set of tempo-adjusted period parity progression measures in order to account for two distinct implications caused by delays in childbearing: tempo distortions imply an underestimation of the quantum of fertility in observed period data, and the fertility aging effect reduces higher parity births because the respective exposure is shifted to older ages when the probability of having another child is quite low. Our measures remove the former distortion and provide means to assess the latter aging effect. The measures therefore provide a unified toolkit of fertility indices that (a) facilitate the description and analysis of past period fertility trends in terms of synthetic cohort measures, and (b) allow the projection of the timing, level and distribution of cohort fertility conditional on a specific postponement scenario. Due to their explicit relation to cohort behavior, these measures extend and improve the existing adjustment of the total fertility rate. We apply these methods to Sweden from 1970 to 1999.

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Article provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its journal Demographic Research.

Volume (Year): 6 (2002)
Issue (Month): 6 (March)
Pages: 91-144

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Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:6:y:2002:i:6
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/

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  1. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures:," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(7), pages 145-190, March.
  2. Hans-Peter Kohler & Axel Skytthe & Kaare Christensen, 2001. "The age at first birth and completed fertility reconsidered: findings from a sample of identical twins," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  3. repec:cai:popine:popu_p2001_56n3_0420 is not listed on IDEAS
  4. Young J. Kim & Robert Schoen, 2000. "On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Limits to the Bongaarts-Feeney Adjustment," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(3), pages 554-559.
  5. Tomas Frejka & Gérard Calot, 2001. "Cohort Reproductive Patterns in Low-Fertility Countries," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(1), pages 103-132.
  6. José A. Ortega & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2002. "Measuring low fertility: rethinking demographic methods," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-001, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  7. N. Ryder, 1964. "The process of demographic translation," Demography, Springer, vol. 1(1), pages 74-82, March.
  8. Francesco C. Billari & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2000. "The impact of union formation dynamics on first births in West Germany and Italy: are there signs of convergence?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2000-008, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
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