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Old Insights and New Approaches: Fertility Analysis and Tempo Adjustment in the Age-Parity Model

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  • Hans-Peter Kohler
  • José Antonio Ortega

Abstract

In this article we provide an overview of traditional and recent methods for the investigation of period fertility, emphasising in particular aspects of the analysis that are relevant in contemporary low and lowest-low fertility contexts. For this purpose, we present a new approach that integrates traditional measures of fertility, such as the TFR, in a versatile manner with (a) the tempo adjustment of fertility that corrects for distortions due to the rapid postponement of fertility, (b) life-table measures of fertility that eliminate influences caused by the parity composition of the population, and (c) methods for cohort completion and projection that provide a consistent and demographically correct mapping of recent period fertility patterns on the future childbearing behaviour of women still in their childbearing years.

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  • Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2004. "Old Insights and New Approaches: Fertility Analysis and Tempo Adjustment in the Age-Parity Model," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 2(1), pages 57-90.
    • Handle: RePEc:vid:yearbk:v:2:y:2004:i:1:p:57-90
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    1. John Bongaarts & Griffith Feeney, 2000. "On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Reply," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(3), pages 560-564, September.
    2. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(6), pages 91-144.
    3. Evert van Imhoff, 2001. "On the impossibility of inferring cohort fertility measures from period fertility measures," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 5(2), pages 23-64.
    4. Robert Schoen & Stefan H. Jonsson, 2003. "A diminishing population whose every cohort more than replaces itself," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 9(6), pages 111-118.
    5. Donald Akers, 1965. "Cohort fertility versus parity progression as methods of projecting births," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 2(1), pages 414-428, March.
    6. Hans-Peter Kohler & Dimiter Philipov, 2001. "Variance effects in the bongaarts-feeney formula," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(1), pages 1-16, February.
    7. N. Ryder, 1964. "The process of demographic translation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 1(1), pages 74-82, March.
    8. Evert van Imhoff & Nico Keilman, 2000. "On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Comment," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(3), pages 549-553, September.
    9. Young J. Kim & Robert Schoen, 2000. "On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Limits to the Bongaarts‐Feeney Adjustment," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(3), pages 554-559, September.
    10. Chal Park, 1976. "Lifetime probability of additional births by age and parity for American women, 1935–1968: A new measurement of period fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 13(1), pages 1-17, February.
    11. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures:," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(7), pages 145-190.
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    Cited by:

    1. Griffith Feeney & John Bongaarts, 2006. "The Quantum and Tempo of Life-Cycle Events," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 115-151.
    2. Tomas Sobotka & Maria Winkler-Dworak & Maria Rita Testa & Wolfgang Lutz & Dimiter Philipov & Henriette Engelhardt & Richard Gisser, 2005. "Monthly Estimates of the Quantum of Fertility: Towards a Fertility Monitoring System in Austria," VID Working Papers 0501, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.

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