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Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures:

Author

Listed:
  • Hans-Peter Kohler

    (University of Pennsylvania)

  • José Antonio Ortega

    (Universidad de Salamanca)

Abstract

In this paper we apply tempo-adjusted period parity progression ratios (Kohler and Ortega 2002) to Sweden, the Netherlands and Spain. These countries represent three distinct demographic patterns in contemporary Europe and are of particular interest for demographers. The goal of our analyses is to (a) describe past fertility trends in these countries in terms of synthetic cohorts and (b) project the level and distribution of completed fertility in cohorts who have not finished childbearing. Our analyses suggest that the most recent period fertility patterns in these countries do not imply substantial increases in childlessness even in younger cohorts. Moreover, if these patterns prevail in the future, young cohorts would reach completed fertility levels between 1.5-1.75.

Suggested Citation

  • Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures:," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(7), pages 145-190, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:6:y:2002:i:7
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    File URL: https://www.demographic-research.org/volumes/vol6/7/6-7.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. José A. Ortega & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2002. "Measuring low fertility: rethinking demographic methods," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-001, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    2. Hans-Peter Kohler & Axel Skytthe & Kaare Christensen, 2001. "The age at first birth and completed fertility reconsidered: findings from a sample of identical twins," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    3. Young J. Kim & Robert Schoen, 2000. "On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Limits to the Bongaarts-Feeney Adjustment," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(3), pages 554-559.
    4. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(6), pages 91-144, March.
    5. Francesco C. Billari & Hans-Peter Kohler, 2000. "The impact of union formation dynamics on first births in West Germany and Italy: are there signs of convergence?," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2000-008, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    6. Francesco C. Billari & Chris Wilson, 2001. "Convergence towards diversity? Cohort dynamics in the transition to adulthood in contemporary Western Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-039, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    7. N. Ryder, 1964. "The process of demographic translation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 1(1), pages 74-82, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Ian Dey & Fran Wasoff, 2010. "Another Child? Fertility Ideals, Resources and Opportunities," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 29(6), pages 921-940, December.
    2. Nick Parr, 2011. "The contribution of increases in family benefits to Australia’s early 21st-century fertility increase: An empirical analysis," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(6), pages 215-244, July.
    3. Joshua R. Goldstein, 2010. "A behavioral Gompertz model for cohort fertility schedules in low and moderate fertility populations," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2010-021, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    4. John Bongaarts, 2008. "What can fertility indicators tell us about pronatalist policy options?," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 6(1), pages 39-55.
    5. Rueda, Cristina & Rodríguez, Pilar, 2010. "State space models for estimating and forecasting fertility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(4), pages 712-724, October.
    6. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2004. "Old Insights and New Approaches: Fertility Analysis and Tempo Adjustment in the Age-Parity Model," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 2(1), pages 57-90.
    7. Hans-Peter Kohler & José Antonio Ortega, 2002. "Tempo-Adjusted Period Parity Progression Measures, Fertility Postponement and Completed Cohort Fertility," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(6), pages 91-144, March.
    8. Robert Schoen, 2004. "Timing effects and the interpretation of period fertility," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 41(4), pages 801-819, November.
    9. Maria Winkler-Dworak & Henriette Engelhardt-Wölfler, 2004. "On the tempo and quantum of first marriages in Austria, Germany, and Switzerland," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 10(9), pages 231-264, May.
    10. Hans-Peter Kohler & Iliana Kohler, 2001. "Fertility decline in Russia after 1990: the role of economic uncertainty and labor market crises," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2001-013, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    11. FFF1Gunnar NNN1Andersson, 2004. "Childbearing Developments in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden from the 1970s to the 1990s: A Comparison," Demographic Research Special Collections, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 3(7), pages 155-176, April.
    12. Cécile Wetzels & Aslan Zorlu, 2003. "Wage effects of motherhood: a double selection approach," NIMA Working Papers 22, Núcleo de Investigação em Microeconomia Aplicada (NIMA), Universidade do Minho.
    13. Aart C. Liefbroer & Dimiter Philipov & Francesco C. Billari, 2006. "The Postponement of Childbearing in Europe: Driving Forces and Implications," Vienna Yearbook of Population Research, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna, vol. 4(1), pages 1-17.
    14. Sebastian Klüsener, 2009. "An alternative framework for studying the effects of family policies on fertility in the absence of individual-level data: a spatial analysis with small-scale macro data on Germany," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2009-027, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    15. Anna Rybiñska, 2014. "Motherhood after the age of 35 in Poland," Working Papers 65, Institute of Statistics and Demography, Warsaw School of Economics.
    16. Rachel Sullivan, 2005. "The age pattern of first-birth rates among U.S. women: The bimodal 1990s," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(2), pages 259-273, May.
    17. Evgueni M. Andreev & Vladimir M. Shkolnikov & Alexander Z. Begun, 2002. "Algorithm for decomposition of differences between aggregate demographic measures and its application to life expectancies, Gini coefficients, health expectancies, parity-progression ratios and total ," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2002-035, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    18. Gunnar Andersson, 2003. "Childbearing developments in Denmark, Norway, and Sweden from the 1970s to the 1990s: a comparison," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2003-036, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    19. Máire Ní Bhrolcháin, 2011. "Tempo and the TFR," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(3), pages 841-861, August.
    20. Hans-Peter Kohler & Lisbeth B. Knudsen & Axel Skytthe & Kaare Christensen, 2002. "The Fertility Pattern of Twins and the General Population Compared: Evidence from Danish Cohorts 1945-64," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 6(14), pages 383-408, May.
    21. Francesco C. Billari & Hans-Peter Kohler & Gunnar Andersson & Hans Lundström, 2007. "Pushing the limit: long-term trends in late fertility in Sweden," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2007-004, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    cohort fertility; fertility; fertility postponement; fertility projection; low fertility; Netherlands; parity progression measures; Spain; Sweden; tempo adjustment;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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