IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/dem/wpaper/wp-2012-003.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Bayesian forecasting of cohort fertility

Author

Listed:
  • Carl Schmertmann

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Emilio Zagheni

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Joshua R. Goldstein

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Mikko Myrskylä

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

Abstract

There are already several documented examples of recent increases in cohort fertility in Scandinavia, but for most countries, cohorts are too young to see if cohort fertility has increased. We produce new estimates of completed cohort fertility for cohorts born in the 1970s. We combine the best of previous efforts, using cohort forecasting methods to preserve what demographers know about the age-pattern of fertility, and using trends in the age-period-cohort Lexis surface to tell us as much as possible about the way in which fertility appears to be changing over time. Our preliminary findings suggest that cohort fertility has stopped its long-term secular decline in the majority of low fertility countries around the world. In some cases, there is a clear suggestion of increase. As we further develop our models we expect to be able to make more precise statements about further trends and the certainty of our knowledge.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl Schmertmann & Emilio Zagheni & Joshua R. Goldstein & Mikko Myrskylä, 2012. "Bayesian forecasting of cohort fertility," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2012-003, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-003.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pao-Chih Roger Cheng & Eric S. Lin, 2010. "Completing incomplete cohort fertility schedules," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 23(9), pages 223-256, July.
    2. Scott Lynch & J. Brown, 2001. "Reconsidering mortality compression and deceleration: an alternative model of mortality rates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(1), pages 79-95, February.
    3. David Bloom, 1982. "What’s happening to the age at first birth in the United States? A study of recent cohorts," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 19(3), pages 351-370, August.
    4. Angela Luci & Olivier Thevenon, 2010. "Does economic development drive the fertility rebound in OECD countries?," Working Papers hal-00520948, HAL.
    5. Isabelle Bray, 2002. "Application of Markov chain Monte Carlo methods to projecting cancer incidence and mortality," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series C, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 51(2), pages 151-164, May.
    6. Rachel Sullivan, 2005. "The age pattern of first-birth rates among U.S. women: The bimodal 1990s," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 42(2), pages 259-273, May.
    7. Booth, Heather, 2006. "Demographic forecasting: 1980 to 2005 in review," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 547-581.
    8. S. N. Wood, 2000. "Modelling and smoothing parameter estimation with multiple quadratic penalties," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 62(2), pages 413-428.
    9. Renbao Chen & S. Morgan, 1991. "Recent Trends in the Timing of First Births in the United States," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 28(4), pages 513-533, November.
    10. Samir Soneji & Gary King, 2011. "The future of death in America," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 25(1), pages 1-38, July.
    11. Volker Schmid & Leonhard Held, 2004. "Bayesian Extrapolation of Space–Time Trends in Cancer Registry Data," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 60(4), pages 1034-1042, December.
    12. Hans-Peter Kohler & Dimiter Philipov, 2001. "Variance effects in the bongaarts-feeney formula," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(1), pages 1-16, February.
    13. Lee, Ronald D., 1993. "Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: Age distribution, range, and ultimate level," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 187-202, August.
    14. Mikko Myrskylä & Joshua R. Goldstein & Yen-hsin Alice Cheng, 2013. "New Cohort Fertility Forecasts for the Developed World: Rises, Falls, and Reversals," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 39(1), pages 31-56, March.
    15. Tomas Frejka & Gérard Calot, 2001. "Cohort Reproductive Patterns in Low‐Fertility Countries," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 27(1), pages 103-132, March.
    16. Zeng Yi & Kenneth Land, 2002. "Adjusting period tempo changes with an extension of ryder’s basic translation equation," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 39(2), pages 269-285, May.
    17. Angela Luci & Olivier Thevenon, 2010. "Does economic development drive the fertility rebound in OECD countries?," Working Papers hal-00520948, HAL.
    18. Renshaw, A.E. & Haberman, S., 2006. "A cohort-based extension to the Lee-Carter model for mortality reduction factors," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 556-570, June.
    19. Leontine Alkema & Adrian Raftery & Patrick Gerland & Samuel Clark & François Pelletier & Thomas Buettner & Gerhard Heilig, 2011. "Probabilistic Projections of the Total Fertility Rate for All Countries," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 48(3), pages 815-839, August.
    20. Hyndman, Rob J. & Booth, Heather, 2008. "Stochastic population forecasts using functional data models for mortality, fertility and migration," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 323-342.
    21. Carter, Lawrence R. & Lee, Ronald D., 1992. "Modeling and forecasting US sex differentials in mortality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 393-411, November.
    22. Evert van Imhoff & Nico Keilman, 2000. "On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Comment," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(3), pages 549-553, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Angela Greulich & Olivier Thevenon & Mathilde Guergoat-Larivière, 2015. "Securing women's employment: A fertility booster in European countries?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01298946, HAL.
    2. Hippolyte d’Albis & Paula Gobbi & Angela Greulich, 2015. "Access to Childcare and Second Child Arrival in European Countries," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2015010, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    3. repec:ctl:louvde:v:83:y:2017:i:2:p:177-210 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Julia Hellstrand & Jessica Nisén & Mikko Myrskylä, 2019. "All-time low period fertility in Finland: drivers, tempo effects, and cohort implications," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2019-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    5. Hippolyte d’ALBIS & Paula E. GOBBI & Angela GREULICH, 2017. "Having a Second Child and Access to Childcare : Evidence from European Countries," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(2), pages 177-210, June.
    6. Shang, Han Lin & Smith, Peter W.F. & Bijak, Jakub & Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz, 2016. "A multilevel functional data method for forecasting population, with an application to the United Kingdom," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 629-649.
    7. Solmaria Halleck Vega & Antoine Mandel, 2017. "A network-based approach to technology transfers in the context of climate policy," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17009, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    8. Vanella, Patrizio, 2016. "The Total Fertility Rate in Germany until 2040 - A Stochastic Principal Components Projection based on Age-specific Fertility Rates," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-579, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    9. Jonathan F. Fox & Sebastian Klüsener & Mikko Myrskylä, 2015. "Is a positive relationship between fertility and economic development emerging at the sub-national regional level? Theoretical considerations and evidence from Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2015-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    10. repec:spr:demogr:v:54:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1007_s13524-017-0618-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:spr:demogr:v:54:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s13524-017-0584-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Fox, Jonathan & Klüsener, Sebastian & Myrskylä, Mikko, 2018. "Is a positive relationship between fertility and economic development emerging at the sub-national regional level? Theoretical considerations and evidence from Europe," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 88295, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    13. Hippolyte d’ALBIS & Paula E. GOBBI & Angela GREULICH, 2017. "Having a Second Child and Access to Childcare : Evidence from European Countries," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 83(2), pages 177-210, June.
    14. Angela Greulich & Olivier Thevenon & Mathilde Guergoat-Larivière, 2016. "Securing women's employment: A fertility booster in European countries?," Working Papers hal-01298862, HAL.
    15. Hudde, Ansgar, 2016. "Fertility Is Low When There Is No Societal Agreement on a Specific Gender Role Model," EconStor Preprints 142175, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    16. repec:dem:demres:v:38:y:2018:i:15 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Angela Greulich & Olivier Thevenon & Mathilde Guergoat-Larivière, 2015. "Securing women's employment: A fertility booster in European countries?," Working Papers hal-01298946, HAL.
    18. repec:dem:demres:v:37:y:2017:i:12 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-003. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Peter Wilhelm). General contact details of provider: https://www.demogr.mpg.de/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.