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Bayesian forecasting of cohort fertility


  • Carl Schmertmann

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Emilio Zagheni

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Joshua R. Goldstein

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Mikko Myrskylä

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)


There are already several documented examples of recent increases in cohort fertility in Scandinavia, but for most countries, cohorts are too young to see if cohort fertility has increased. We produce new estimates of completed cohort fertility for cohorts born in the 1970s. We combine the best of previous efforts, using cohort forecasting methods to preserve what demographers know about the age-pattern of fertility, and using trends in the age-period-cohort Lexis surface to tell us as much as possible about the way in which fertility appears to be changing over time. Our preliminary findings suggest that cohort fertility has stopped its long-term secular decline in the majority of low fertility countries around the world. In some cases, there is a clear suggestion of increase. As we further develop our models we expect to be able to make more precise statements about further trends and the certainty of our knowledge.

Suggested Citation

  • Carl Schmertmann & Emilio Zagheni & Joshua R. Goldstein & Mikko Myrskylä, 2012. "Bayesian forecasting of cohort fertility," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2012-003, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
  • Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-003

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Scott Lynch & J. Brown, 2001. "Reconsidering mortality compression and deceleration: an alternative model of mortality rates," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 38(1), pages 79-95, February.
    2. Angela Luci & Olivier Thévenon, 2010. "Does economic development drive the fertility rebound in oecd countries ?," Working Papers 167, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED).
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    Cited by:

    1. Angela Greulich & Olivier Thevenon & Mathilde Guergoat-Larivière, 2015. "Securing women's employment: A fertility booster in European countries?," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01298946, HAL.
    2. Hippolyte d’Albis & Paula Gobbi & Angela Greulich, 2015. "Access to Childcare and Second Child Arrival in European Countries," Discussion Papers (IRES - Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales) 2015010, Université catholique de Louvain, Institut de Recherches Economiques et Sociales (IRES).
    3. repec:ctl:louvde:v:83:y:2017:i:2:p:177-210 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Hippolyte d’ALBIS & Paula E. GOBBI & Angela GREULICH, 2017. "Having a Second Child and Access to Childcare : Evidence from European Countries," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, pages 177-210.
    5. Shang, Han Lin & Smith, Peter W.F. & Bijak, Jakub & Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz, 2016. "A multilevel functional data method for forecasting population, with an application to the United Kingdom," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, pages 629-649.
    6. Solmaria Halleck Vega & Antoine Mandel, 2017. "A network-based approach to technology transfers in the context of climate policy," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 17009, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    7. Vanella, Patrizio, 2016. "The Total Fertility Rate in Germany until 2040 - A Stochastic Principal Components Projection based on Age-specific Fertility Rates," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-579, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    8. Jonathan F. Fox & Sebastian Klüsener & Mikko Myrskylä, 2015. "Is a positive relationship between fertility and economic development emerging at the sub-national regional level? Theoretical considerations and evidence from Europe," MPIDR Working Papers WP-2015-006, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
    9. repec:spr:demogr:v:54:y:2017:i:6:d:10.1007_s13524-017-0618-7 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. repec:spr:demogr:v:54:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s13524-017-0584-0 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-01298862 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Hudde, Ansgar, 2016. "Fertility Is Low When There Is No Societal Agreement on a Specific Gender Role Model," EconStor Preprints 142175, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    13. repec:dem:demres:v:37:y:2017:i:12 is not listed on IDEAS

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    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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