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Bayesian forecasting of cohort fertility

  • Carl Schmertmann

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Emilio Zagheni

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Joshua R. Goldstein

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

  • Mikko Myrskylä

    (Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany)

There are already several documented examples of recent increases in cohort fertility in Scandinavia, but for most countries, cohorts are too young to see if cohort fertility has increased. We produce new estimates of completed cohort fertility for cohorts born in the 1970s. We combine the best of previous efforts, using cohort forecasting methods to preserve what demographers know about the age-pattern of fertility, and using trends in the age-period-cohort Lexis surface to tell us as much as possible about the way in which fertility appears to be changing over time. Our preliminary findings suggest that cohort fertility has stopped its long-term secular decline in the majority of low fertility countries around the world. In some cases, there is a clear suggestion of increase. As we further develop our models we expect to be able to make more precise statements about further trends and the certainty of our knowledge.

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File URL: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/papers/working/wp-2012-003.pdf
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Paper provided by Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany in its series MPIDR Working Papers with number WP-2012-003.

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Length: 39 pages
Date of creation: Jan 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dem:wpaper:wp-2012-003
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.demogr.mpg.de/

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  1. Scott Lynch & J. Brown, 2001. "Reconsidering mortality compression and deceleration: an alternative model of mortality rates," Demography, Springer, vol. 38(1), pages 79-95, February.
  2. Angela Luci & Olivier Thévenon, 2010. "Does economic development drive the fertility rebound in oecd countries ?," Working Papers 167, Institut National d'Études Démographiques (INED).
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