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Completing incomplete cohort fertility schedules

Author

Listed:
  • Pao-Chih Roger Cheng

    (National Central University)

  • Eric S. Lin

    (National Tsing Hua University)

Abstract

This paper develops a simple age-period-cohort framework in completing incomplete cohort fertility schedules, and makes full use of 1917--2005 U.S. data to obtain robust outcomes. Empirically, we indicate that the period effect is the key to transforming a fertility level into a fertility schedule. Accompanied by the smoothed version of tempo-variance-adjusted total fertility rates proposed in Kohler and Philipov (2001), we approximate the cohort fertility schedules fairly well and the estimates of all distributional parameters can be thereby obtained. Our approach is easy to implement and the data requirement is relatively light, indicating that the proposed method is readily applicable to countries whose data lengths are insufficiently long, and would be helpful for further empirical investigation of the relationship between cohort fertility behavior and other cohort-specific socioeconomic factors.

Suggested Citation

  • Pao-Chih Roger Cheng & Eric S. Lin, 2010. "Completing incomplete cohort fertility schedules," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 23(9), pages 223-256.
    • Handle: RePEc:dem:demres:v:23:y:2010:i:9
    DOI: 10.4054/DemRes.2010.23.9
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Evert van Imhoff, 2001. "On the impossibility of inferring cohort fertility measures from period fertility measures," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 5(2), pages 23-64.
    2. Evert van Imhoff & Nico Keilman, 2000. "On the Quantum and Tempo of Fertility: Comment," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 26(3), pages 549-553, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Grzenda Wioletta & Frątczak Ewa, 2018. "Cohort Patterns Of Fertility In Poland Based On Staging Process – Generations 1930-1980," Statistics in Transition New Series, Statistics Poland, vol. 19(2), pages 315-330, June.
    2. Carl Schmertmann & Emilio Zagheni & Joshua R. Goldstein & Mikko Myrskylä, 2014. "Bayesian Forecasting of Cohort Fertility," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 109(506), pages 500-513, June.
    3. Arkadiusz Wiśniowski & Peter Smith & Jakub Bijak & James Raymer & Jonathan Forster, 2015. "Bayesian Population Forecasting: Extending the Lee-Carter Method," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 52(3), pages 1035-1059, June.
    4. Wioletta Grzenda & Ewa Frątczak, 2018. "Cohort Patterns Of Fertility In Poland Based On Staging Process – Generations 1930-1980," Statistics in Transition New Series, Polish Statistical Association, vol. 19(2), pages 315-330, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cohort fertility schedule; age-period-cohort models; fertility forecast;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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