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A Stochastic Forecast Model For Japan'S Population


  • Yoichi Okita

    (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)

  • Wade D. Pfau

    (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies)

  • Giang Thanh Long

    (National Economics University (NEU))


Obtaining appropriate forecasts for the future population is a vital component of public policy analysis for issues ranging from government budgets to pension systems. Traditionally, demographic forecasters rely on a deterministic approach with various scenarios informed by expert opinion. This approach has been widely criticized, and we apply an alternative stochastic modeling framework that can provide a probability distribution for forecasts of the Japanese population. We find the potential for much greater variability in the future demographic situation for Japan than implied by existing deterministic forecasts. This demands greater flexibility from policy makers when confronting population aging issues.

Suggested Citation

  • Yoichi Okita & Wade D. Pfau & Giang Thanh Long, 2009. "A Stochastic Forecast Model For Japan'S Population," GRIPS Discussion Papers 09-06, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
  • Handle: RePEc:ngi:dpaper:09-06

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Lee, Ronald D., 1993. "Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: Age distribution, range, and ultimate level," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 187-202, August.
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    More about this item


    stochastic population forecasts; Japan; Lee-Carter method;

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods

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