A Stochastic Forecast Model For Japan'S Population
Obtaining appropriate forecasts for the future population is a vital component of public policy analysis for issues ranging from government budgets to pension systems. Traditionally, demographic forecasters rely on a deterministic approach with various scenarios informed by expert opinion. This approach has been widely criticized, and we apply an alternative stochastic modeling framework that can provide a probability distribution for forecasts of the Japanese population. We find the potential for much greater variability in the future demographic situation for Japan than implied by existing deterministic forecasts. This demands greater flexibility from policy makers when confronting population aging issues.
|Date of creation:||May 2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: 7-22-1 Roppongi, Minato-ku, Tokyo, Japan 106-8677|
Web page: http://www.grips.ac.jp/r-center/en/discussion_papers/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Lee, Ronald D., 1993. "Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: Age distribution, range, and ultimate level," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 187-202, August.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ngi:dpaper:09-06. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.