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Muti-Scenarios Population Projection for Algeria using R

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  • Flici, Farid

Abstract

In this manual, we present a methodology of doing a multi-scenarios population projections for Algeria using R. The methodology used consists of the Cohort-Component Method. A detailled methodology of doing mono-scenario population projection in R was already presented in Flici (2020). Here, mortality Scenarios are defined using the predictive intervals of a stochastic forecast, while the Fertility scenarios are expert-based. Here, 5 scenarios are simulated, the Age-Specific fertility rates are then defined using the Lee-Carter Model for fertility (Lee,1993).Later on, we shows how to make dynamic visualizations of the multi-scenario projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Flici, Farid, 2020. "Muti-Scenarios Population Projection for Algeria using R," MPRA Paper 119600, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:119600
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lee, Ronald D., 1993. "Modeling and forecasting the time series of US fertility: Age distribution, range, and ultimate level," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 187-202, August.
    2. Rob Hyndman & Heather Booth & Farah Yasmeen, 2013. "Coherent Mortality Forecasting: The Product-Ratio Method With Functional Time Series Models," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 50(1), pages 261-283, February.
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    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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