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Future Arable Land Requirement of Pig Production in China

Author

Listed:
  • Xiaolei Liu
  • Xuefeng Cui
  • Reshmita Nath

Abstract

 China’s pig industry is experiencing a dramatic increase to meet increasing consumption demand. How these changes influence the limited arable land resources through consuming grain as feed has not been clearly understood. In this manuscript, we calculate the arable land requirement for pig industry (LRP) from 2001 to 2013 and forecast future demand towards 2050 from the point of production, in order to quantify the pressure in different scenarios. The results indicate that the LRP has increased from 22.0 Million Ha in 2001 to 31.6 Million Ha in 2013. LRP will be 23.7-29.4 Million Ha in 2030 and 11.6-18.7 Million Ha in 2050 according to different scenarios. Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition method is assessed to the effect of population, consumption and technology for three time periods e.g. 2010-2030; 2030-2050 and 2010-2050. And technology will become primary reason. These findings could help optimizing the relationships between limited arable land resources and development of pig industry, and promote sustainable development of the pig industry.

Suggested Citation

  • Xiaolei Liu & Xuefeng Cui & Reshmita Nath, 2015. "Future Arable Land Requirement of Pig Production in China," Journal of Agricultural Science, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 8(1), pages 139-139, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:ibn:jasjnl:v:8:y:2015:i:1:p:139
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Wolf, J. & Bindraban, P. S. & Luijten, J. C. & Vleeshouwers, L. M., 2003. "Exploratory study on the land area required for global food supply and the potential global production of bioenergy," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 76(3), pages 841-861, June.
    2. Brian C. O'Neill & Deborah Balk & Melanie Brickman & Markos Ezra, 2001. "A Guide to Global Population Projections," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 4(8), pages 203-288.
    3. Ang, B. W., 2005. "The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis: a practical guide," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 867-871, May.
    4. Zhen, Lin & Cao, Shuyan & Cheng, Shengkui & Xie, Gaodi & Wei, Yunjie & Liu, Xuelin & Li, Fen, 2010. "Arable land requirements based on food consumption patterns: Case study in rural Guyuan District, Western China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(7), pages 1443-1453, May.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • R00 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General - - - General
    • Z0 - Other Special Topics - - General

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