Stochastic Kaya model and its applications
This paper develops a stochastic Kaya model. The elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions with respect to population, per capita GDP, energy efficiency, and fossil fuel dependence is estimated using the panel data of 132 countries from 1960 to 2010. As an application of the stochastic Kaya model, we investigate the achievement of each nation to the stabilization of carbon emissions with economic development, using a method of index decomposition analysis. In addition, carbon emissions are projected by 2050 using the model. One of the main findings is that assuming the unit elasticity for each driving force underestimates the scale effect (population change and economic growth) and overestimates the counteracting technology effect. This results in significant differences in quantifying driving forces of the changes in carbon emissions and in future emissions projections.
|Date of creation:||13 Dec 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Ang, B.W. & Huang, H.C. & Mu, A.R., 2009. "Properties and linkages of some index decomposition analysis methods," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4624-4632, November.
- Ang, B.W. & Mu, A.R. & Zhou, P., 2010. "Accounting frameworks for tracking energy efficiency trends," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1209-1219, September.
- Brizga, Janis & Feng, Kuishuang & Hubacek, Klaus, 2013. "Drivers of CO2 emissions in the former Soviet Union: A country level IPAT analysis from 1990 to 2010," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 743-753.
- Shi, Anqing, 2003. "The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions, 1975-1996: evidence from pooled cross-country data," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 29-42, February.
- York, Richard & Rosa, Eugene A. & Dietz, Thomas, 2003. "STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 351-365, October.
- Ang, B. W., 2005. "The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis: a practical guide," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 867-871, May.
- Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
- Greening, Lorna A. & Davis, William B. & Schipper, Lee, 1998. "Decomposition of aggregate carbon intensity for the manufacturing sector: comparison of declining trends from 10 OECD countries for the period 1971-1991," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 43-65, February.
- Agnolucci, Paolo & Ekins, Paul & Iacopini, Giorgia & Anderson, Kevin & Bows, Alice & Mander, Sarah & Shackley, Simon, 2009. "Different scenarios for achieving radical reduction in carbon emissions: A decomposition analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(6), pages 1652-1666, April.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55099. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ekkehart Schlicht)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.