IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/55099.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Stochastic Kaya model and its applications

Author

Listed:
  • Hwang, In Chang

Abstract

This paper develops a stochastic Kaya model. The elasticity of carbon dioxide emissions with respect to population, per capita GDP, energy efficiency, and fossil fuel dependence is estimated using the panel data of 132 countries from 1960 to 2010. As an application of the stochastic Kaya model, we investigate the achievement of each nation to the stabilization of carbon emissions with economic development, using a method of index decomposition analysis. In addition, carbon emissions are projected by 2050 using the model. One of the main findings is that assuming the unit elasticity for each driving force underestimates the scale effect (population change and economic growth) and overestimates the counteracting technology effect. This results in significant differences in quantifying driving forces of the changes in carbon emissions and in future emissions projections.

Suggested Citation

  • Hwang, In Chang, 2013. "Stochastic Kaya model and its applications," MPRA Paper 55099, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55099
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/55099/1/MPRA_paper_55099.pdf
    File Function: original version
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Marian R. Chertow, 2000. "The IPAT Equation and Its Variants," Journal of Industrial Ecology, Yale University, vol. 4(4), pages 13-29, October.
    2. Detlef Vuuren & Jae Edmonds & Mikiko Kainuma & Keywan Riahi & Allison Thomson & Kathy Hibbard & George Hurtt & Tom Kram & Volker Krey & Jean-Francois Lamarque & Toshihiko Masui & Malte Meinshausen & N, 2011. "The representative concentration pathways: an overview," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 109(1), pages 5-31, November.
    3. Greening, Lorna A. & Davis, William B. & Schipper, Lee, 1998. "Decomposition of aggregate carbon intensity for the manufacturing sector: comparison of declining trends from 10 OECD countries for the period 1971-1991," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 43-65, February.
    4. Shi, Anqing, 2003. "The impact of population pressure on global carbon dioxide emissions, 1975-1996: evidence from pooled cross-country data," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 29-42, February.
    5. Ang, B.W. & Mu, A.R. & Zhou, P., 2010. "Accounting frameworks for tracking energy efficiency trends," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1209-1219, September.
    6. Frank Jotzo & Paul J. Burke & Peter J. Wood & Andrew Macintosh & David I. Stern, 2012. "Decomposing the 2010 global carbon dioxide emissions rebound," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(4), pages 213-214, April.
    7. Brizga, Janis & Feng, Kuishuang & Hubacek, Klaus, 2013. "Drivers of CO2 emissions in the former Soviet Union: A country level IPAT analysis from 1990 to 2010," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 743-753.
    8. Agnolucci, Paolo & Ekins, Paul & Iacopini, Giorgia & Anderson, Kevin & Bows, Alice & Mander, Sarah & Shackley, Simon, 2009. "Different scenarios for achieving radical reduction in carbon emissions: A decomposition analysis," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(6), pages 1652-1666, April.
    9. Martin I. Hoffert & Ken Caldeira & Atul K. Jain & Erik F. Haites & L. D. Danny Harvey & Seth D. Potter & Michael E. Schlesinger & Stephen H. Schneider & Robert G. Watts & Tom M. L. Wigley & Donald J. , 1998. "Energy implications of future stabilization of atmospheric CO2 content," Nature, Nature, vol. 395(6705), pages 881-884, October.
    10. York, Richard & Rosa, Eugene A. & Dietz, Thomas, 2003. "STIRPAT, IPAT and ImPACT: analytic tools for unpacking the driving forces of environmental impacts," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 351-365, October.
    11. Ang, B. W., 2005. "The LMDI approach to decomposition analysis: a practical guide," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 33(7), pages 867-871, May.
    12. Eugene A. Rosa & Thomas Dietz, 2012. "Human drivers of national greenhouse-gas emissions," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 2(8), pages 581-586, August.
    13. Ang, B.W. & Huang, H.C. & Mu, A.R., 2009. "Properties and linkages of some index decomposition analysis methods," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4624-4632, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Paunić, Alida, 2016. "Brazil, Preservation of Forest and Biodiversity," MPRA Paper 71462, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hwang, In Chang, 2013. "Anthropogenic drivers of carbon emissions: scale and counteracting effects," MPRA Paper 52224, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Brizga, Janis & Feng, Kuishuang & Hubacek, Klaus, 2013. "Drivers of CO2 emissions in the former Soviet Union: A country level IPAT analysis from 1990 to 2010," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 743-753.
    3. Fei Wang & Changjian Wang & Jing Chen & Zeng Li & Ling Li, 2020. "Examining the determinants of energy-related carbon emissions in Central Asia: country-level LMDI and EKC analysis during different phases," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(8), pages 7743-7769, December.
    4. Wei Li & Guomin Li & Rongxia Zhang & Wen Sun & Wen Wu & Baihui Jin & Pengfei Cui, 2017. "Carbon Reduction Potential of Resource-Dependent Regions Based on Simulated Annealing Programming Algorithm," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-17, July.
    5. Annageldy Arazmuradov, 2016. "Economic prospect on carbon emissions in Commonwealth of Independent States," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 49(4), pages 395-427, November.
    6. Shahiduzzaman, Md. & Layton, Allan, 2015. "Changes in CO2 emissions over business cycle recessions and expansions in the United States: A decomposition analysis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 150(C), pages 25-35.
    7. Trotta, Gianluca, 2020. "Assessing energy efficiency improvements and related energy security and climate benefits in Finland: An ex post multi-sectoral decomposition analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    8. Baležentis, Alvydas & Baležentis, Tomas & Streimikiene, Dalia, 2011. "The energy intensity in Lithuania during 1995–2009: A LMDI approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(11), pages 7322-7334.
    9. Shao, Shuai & Yang, Lili & Yu, Mingbo & Yu, Mingliang, 2011. "Estimation, characteristics, and determinants of energy-related industrial CO2 emissions in Shanghai (China), 1994-2009," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6476-6494, October.
    10. Yu Sang Chang & Sung Jun Jo & Yoo-Taek Lee & Yoonji Lee, 2021. "Population Density or Populations Size. Which Factor Determines Urban Traffic Congestion?," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(8), pages 1-21, April.
    11. Lu, Qinli & Yang, Hong & Huang, Xianjin & Chuai, Xiaowei & Wu, Changyan, 2015. "Multi-sectoral decomposition in decoupling industrial growth from carbon emissions in the developed Jiangsu Province, China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 414-425.
    12. Marcel Probst & Caspar Sauter, 2015. "CO2 Emissions and Greenhouse Gas Policy Stringency - An Empirical Assessment," IRENE Working Papers 15-03, IRENE Institute of Economic Research.
    13. Wang, Zhaohua & Yin, Fangchao & Zhang, Yixiang & Zhang, Xian, 2012. "An empirical research on the influencing factors of regional CO2 emissions: Evidence from Beijing city, China," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 277-284.
    14. Zhen Hu & Mei Wang & Zhe Cheng, 2022. "Mapping the knowledge development and trend of household energy consumption," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 24(5), pages 6053-6071, May.
    15. Michaela Vourvoulia & Athanasios Kampas, 2024. "Are democratic regime and the magnitude of the informal economy robust determinants of human impacts on the environment? An extreme bounds analysis," Economics and Politics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(1), pages 611-629, March.
    16. Voigt, Sebastian & De Cian, Enrica & Schymura, Michael & Verdolini, Elena, 2014. "Energy intensity developments in 40 major economies: Structural change or technology improvement?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 47-62.
    17. Román-Collado, Rocío & Cansino, José M. & Botia, Camilo, 2018. "How far is Colombia from decoupling? Two-level decomposition analysis of energy consumption changes," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 687-700.
    18. Cahill, Caiman J. & Ó Gallachóir, Brian P., 2012. "Combining physical and economic output data to analyse energy and CO2 emissions trends in industry," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 422-429.
    19. Yalan Zhao & Yaoqiu Kuang & Ningsheng Huang, 2016. "Decomposition Analysis in Decoupling Transport Output from Carbon Emissions in Guangdong Province, China," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-23, April.
    20. Zhang, Pan & Wang, Huan, 2022. "Do provincial energy policies and energy intensity targets help reduce CO2 emissions? Evidence from China," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Climate change policy; CO2 emissions; emissions scenarios; decomposition analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • Q54 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Climate; Natural Disasters and their Management; Global Warming
    • Q56 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Environment and Development; Environment and Trade; Sustainability; Environmental Accounts and Accounting; Environmental Equity; Population Growth
    • Q57 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics - - - Ecological Economics

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:55099. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Joachim Winter (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfmunde.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.