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A method for agent-based models validation

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  • Guerini, Mattia
  • Moneta, Alessio

Abstract

This paper proposes a new method to empirically validate simulation models that generate artificial time series data comparable with real-world data. The approach is based on comparing structures of vector autoregression models which are estimated from both artificial and real-world data by means of causal search algorithms. This relatively simple procedure is able to tackle both the problem of confronting theoretical simulation models with the data and the problem of comparing different models in terms of their empirical reliability. Moreover the paper provides an application of the validation procedure to the agent-based macroeconomic model proposed by Dosi et al. (2015).

Suggested Citation

  • Guerini, Mattia & Moneta, Alessio, 2017. "A method for agent-based models validation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 125-141.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:82:y:2017:i:c:p:125-141
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2017.06.001
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Models validation; Agent-based models; Causality; Structural vector autoregressions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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