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On the Role of Theory and Evidence in Macroeconomics

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  • Katarina Juselius

Abstract

This paper, which is prepared for the Inagural Conference of the Institute for New Economic Thinking in King's College, Cambridge, 8-11 April 2010, questions the preeminence of theory over empirics in economics and argues that empirical econometrics needs to be given a more important and inde- pendent role in economic analysis, not only to have some confidence in the soundness of our empirical inferences, but to uncover empirical regularities that can serve as a basis for new economic thinking.

Suggested Citation

  • Katarina Juselius, 2010. "On the Role of Theory and Evidence in Macroeconomics," Discussion Papers 10-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:kud:kuiedp:1012
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    1. Kenneth Rogoff, 1996. "The Purchasing Power Parity Puzzle," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 34(2), pages 647-668, June.
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    3. Katarina Juselius, 1999. "Models and relations in economics and econometrics," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(2), pages 259-290.
    4. J. M. Keynes, 1937. "The General Theory of Employment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 209-223.
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    6. Juselius, Katarina, 1995. "Do purchasing power parity and uncovered interest rate parity hold in the long run? An example of likelihood inference in a multivariate time-series model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 69(1), pages 211-240, September.
    7. Summers, Lawrence H, 1991. " The Scientific Illusion in Empirical Macroeconomics," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 93(2), pages 129-148.
    8. Jordi Galí & Tommaso Monacelli, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Volatility in a Small Open Economy," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 72(3), pages 707-734.
    9. Juselius, Katarina, 1996. "An Empirical Analysis of the Changing Role of the German Bundesbank after 1983," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(4), pages 791-819, November.
    10. Tony Lawson, 2009. "The current economic crisis: its nature and the course of academic economics," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 33(4), pages 759-777, July.
    11. Kevin D. Hoover & Soren Johansen & Katarina Juselius, 2008. "Allowing the Data to Speak Freely: The Macroeconometrics of the Cointegrated Vector Autoregression," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(2), pages 251-255, May.
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    13. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
    14. Fanelli, Luca, 2007. "Evaluating the New Keynesian Phillips Curve under VAR-based learning," MPRA Paper 1616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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    22. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina & Frydman, Roman & Goldberg, Michael, 2010. "Testing hypotheses in an I(2) model with piecewise linear trends. An analysis of the persistent long swings in the Dmk/$ rate," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(1), pages 117-129, September.
    23. Juselius, Katarina, 1998. "A Structured VAR for Denmark under Changing Monetary Regimes," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(4), pages 400-411, October.
    24. Spanos, Aris, 1995. "On theory testing in econometrics : Modeling with nonexperimental data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 189-226, May.
    25. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    26. Johansen, Søren & Juselius, Katarina, 1992. "Testing structural hypotheses in a multivariate cointegration analysis of the PPP and the UIP for UK," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 211-244.
    27. Fanelli, Luca, 2008. "Evaluating New Keynesian Phillips Curve under VAR-Based Learning," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 2, pages 1-24.
    28. Katarina Juselius, 2001. "European integration and monetary transmission mechanisms: the case of Italy," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 341-358.
    29. Benigno, Gianluca, 2004. "Real exchange rate persistence and monetary policy rules," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(3), pages 473-502, April.
    30. Katarina Juselius, 2011. "Time to reject the privileging of economic theory over empirical evidence? A reply to Lawson," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 35(2), pages 423-436.
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    1. repec:eee:dyncon:v:82:y:2017:i:c:p:125-141 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Guerini, Mattia & Moneta, Alessio, 2017. "A method for agent-based models validation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 125-141.

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