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Income distribution, credit and fiscal policies in an agent-based keynesian model

Author

Listed:
  • Giovanni Dosi

    (LEM - Laboratory of Economics and Management - SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa])

  • Giorgio Fagiolo

    (LEM - Laboratory of Economics and Management - SSSUP - Scuola Universitaria Superiore Sant'Anna [Pisa])

  • Mauro Napoletano

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Andrea Roventini

    (Department of Economics - Tilburg University [Netherlands])

Abstract

This work studies the interactions between income distribution and monetary and fiscal policies in terms of ensuing dynamics of macro variables (GDP growth, unemployment etc.) on the grounds of an agent-based Keynesian model. The direct ancestor of this work is the "Keynes meeting Schumpeter" formalism presented in Dosi et al. (2010). To that model, we add a banking sector and a monetary authority setting interest rates and credit lending conditions. The model combines Keynesian mechanisms of demand generation, a "Schumpeterian" innovation-fueled process of growth and Minskian credit dynamics. The robustness of the model is checked against its capability to jointly account for a large set of empirical regularities both at the micro level and at the macro one. The model is able to catch salient features underlying the current as well as previous recessions, the impact of financial factors and the role in them of income distribution. We found that different income distribution regimes heavily a affect macroeconomic performance: more unequal economies are exposed to more severe business cycles fuctuations, higher unemployment rates, and higher probability of crises. On the policy side, fiscal policies do not only dampen business cycles, reduce unemployment and the likelihood of experiencing a huge crisis. In some circumstances they also affect positively long-term growth. Further, the more income distribution is skewed toward profits, the greater the effects of fiscal policies. About monetary policy, we find a strong non-linearity in the way interest rates affect macroeconomic dynamics: in one "regime" with low rates, changes in interest rates are ineffective up to a threshold beyond which increasing the interest rate implies smaller output growth rates and larger output, volatility, unemployment and likelihood of crises.

Suggested Citation

  • Giovanni Dosi & Giorgio Fagiolo & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini, 2012. "Income distribution, credit and fiscal policies in an agent-based keynesian model," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-01070285, HAL.
  • Handle: RePEc:hal:spmain:hal-01070285
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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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