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The Financial Instability Hypothesis: A Stochastic Microfoundation Framework

This paper examines the dynamics of financial distress and in particular the mechanism of transmission of shocks from the financial sector to the real economy. The analysis is performed by representing the linkages between microeconomic financial variables and the aggregate performance of the economy by means of a microfounded model with firms that have heterogeneous capital structures. The model is solved both numerically and analytically, by means of a stochastic approximation that is able to replicate quite well the numerical solution. These methodologies, by overcoming the restrictions imposed by the traditional microfounded approach, enable us to provide some insights into the stabilization policies which may be effective in a financially fragile system.

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File URL: http://www.qfrc.uts.edu.au/research/research_papers/rp273.pdf
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Paper provided by Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney in its series Research Paper Series with number 273.

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Length: 29 pages
Date of creation: 01 Mar 2010
Date of revision:
Publication status: Published as: Chiarella, C. and Di Guilmi, C., 2011, "The Financial Instability Hypothesis:a Stochastic Microfoundation Framework", Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 35(8), 1151-1171.
Handle: RePEc:uts:rpaper:273
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  1. Gatti, Domenico Delli & Guilmi, Corrado Di & Gaffeo, Edoardo & Giulioni, Gianfranco & Gallegati, Mauro & Palestrini, Antonio, 2005. "A new approach to business fluctuations: heterogeneous interacting agents, scaling laws and financial fragility," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 489-512, April.
  2. Corrado Di Guilmi & Edoardo Gaffeo & Mauro Gallegati & Antonio Palestrini, 2004. "International evidence on business cycle magnitude dependence," Papers cond-mat/0401495, arXiv.org.
  3. Urban Jermann & Vincenzo Quadrini, 2009. "Macroeconomic Effects of Financial Shocks," NBER Working Papers 15338, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicolás S., 1945-, 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Working papers 1523-84., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  5. Xavier Gabaix, 2005. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," 2005 Meeting Papers 470, Society for Economic Dynamics.
  6. Steve Keen, 1995. "Finance and Economic Breakdown: Modeling Minsky's "Financial Instability Hypothesis"," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 17(4), pages 607-635, July.
  7. Domenico Delli Gatti & Mauro Gallegati & Hyman P. Minsky, 1994. "Financial Institutions, Economic Policy, and the Dynamic Behavior of the Economy," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_126, Levy Economics Institute.
  8. Carl Chiarella & Xue-Zhong He, 2001. "Dynamics of Beliefs and Learning Under aL Processes - The Heterogeneous Case," Research Paper Series 55, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  9. Tobin, James, 1969. "A General Equilibrium Approach to Monetary Theory," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 1(1), pages 15-29, February.
  10. Alfarano, Simone & Lux, Thomas & Wagner, Friedrich, 2005. "Time-variation of higher moments in a financial market with heterogeneous agents: An analytical approach," Economics Working Papers 2005,14, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
  11. Reinhart, Carmen, 2009. "The Second Great Contraction," MPRA Paper 21485, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  12. Oren Sussman & Javier Suarez, 2004. "Financial Distress, Bankruptcy Law and the Business Cycle," Economics Series Working Papers 2004-FE-07, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
  13. Simone Landini & Mariacristina Uberti, 2008. "A Statistical Mechanic View of Macro-dynamics in Economics," Computational Economics, Society for Computational Economics, vol. 32(1), pages 121-146, September.
  14. Lux, Thomas, 1995. "Herd Behaviour, Bubbles and Crashes," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 105(431), pages 881-96, July.
  15. Carl Chiarella & Roberto Dieci & Xue-Zhong He, 2008. "Heterogeneity, Market Mechanisms, and Asset Price Dynamics," Research Paper Series 231, Quantitative Finance Research Centre, University of Technology, Sydney.
  16. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
  17. William A. Brock & Cars H. Hommes, 1997. "A Rational Route to Randomness," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 65(5), pages 1059-1096, September.
  18. Zeeman, E. C., 1974. "On the unstable behaviour of stock exchanges," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 39-49, March.
  19. Gallegati, M. & Palestrini, A., 2010. "The complex behavior of firms' size dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 69-76, July.
  20. Di Guilmi, C. & Gaffeo, E. & Gallegati, M. & Palestrini, A., 2005. "International Evidence on Business Cycle Magnitude Dependence: An Analyisis of 16 Industrialized Countries, 1881-2000," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(1), pages 5-16.
  21. L. Randall Wray & Eric Tymoigne, 2008. "Macroeconomics Meets Hyman P. Minsky: The Financial Theory of Investment," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_543, Levy Economics Institute.
  22. Gilberto Tadeu Lima & Antonio J. A. Meirelles, 2007. "Macrodynamics of debt regimes, financial instability and growth," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 31(4), pages 563-580, July.
  23. Giuseppe Fontana, 2003. "Post Keynesian Approaches to Endogenous Money: A time framework explanation," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 291-314.
  24. Robert Axtell & Robert Axelrod & Joshua M. Epstein & Michael D. Cohen, 1995. "Aligning Simulation Models: A Case Study and Results," Working Papers 95-07-065, Santa Fe Institute.
  25. Marc Jarsulic, 1989. "Endogenous Credit and Endogenous Business Cycles," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 12(1), pages 35-48, October.
  26. Lance Taylor & Stephen A. O'Connell, 1985. "A Minsky Crisis," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 100(Supplemen), pages 871-885.
  27. Gaffeo, Edoardo & Gallegati, Mauro & Palestrini, Antonio, 2003. "On the size distribution of firms: additional evidence from the G7 countries," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 324(1), pages 117-123.
  28. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:28:y:2007:i:29:p:a0 is not listed on IDEAS
  29. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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