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International Evidence on Business Cycle Magnitude Dependence: An Analyisis of 16 Industrialized Countries, 1881-2000

Author

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  • Di Guilmi, C.
  • Gaffeo, E.
  • Gallegati, M.
  • Palestrini, A.

Abstract

Are expansions and recessions more likely to end as their magnitude increases? In this paper we apply parametric hazard models to investigate this issue in a sample of 16 countries from 1881 to 2000. For the total sample we find evidence of positive magnitude dependence for recessions, while for expansions we are not able to reject the null of magnitude independence. This last result is likely due to a structural change in the mechanism guiding expansions before and after the second World War. In particular, upturns show negative magnitude dependence in the post-World War II sub-sample, meaning that in this period expansions become less likely to end as their magnitude increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Di Guilmi, C. & Gaffeo, E. & Gallegati, M. & Palestrini, A., 2005. "International Evidence on Business Cycle Magnitude Dependence: An Analyisis of 16 Industrialized Countries, 1881-2000," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(1), pages 5-16.
  • Handle: RePEc:eaa:ijaeqs:v:2:y2005:i:1_1
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    File URL: http://www.usc.es/economet/reviews/ijaeqs211.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2002. "Dissecting the cycle: a methodological investigation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, pages 365-381.
    2. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn Rudebusch & Daniel Sichel, 1993. "Further Evidence on Business-Cycle Duration Dependence," NBER Chapters,in: Business Cycles, Indicators and Forecasting, pages 255-284 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Diebold, Francis X & Rudebusch, Glenn D, 1990. "A Nonparametric Investigation of Duration Dependence in the American Business Cycle," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 98(3), pages 596-616, June.
    4. Lancaster, Tony, 1979. "Econometric Methods for the Duration of Unemployment," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 47(4), pages 939-956, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:jeborg:v:140:y:2017:i:c:p:70-90 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Corrado Di Guilmi & Laura Carvalho, 2015. "The dynamics of leverage in a Minskyan model with heterogeneous firms," Working Papers, Department of Economics 2015_15, University of São Paulo (FEA-USP).
    3. Chiarella, C. & Di Guilmi, C., 2017. "Monetary Policy And Debt Deflation: Some Computational Experiments," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, pages 214-242.
    4. Chiarella, Carl & Di Guilmi, Corrado, 2011. "The financial instability hypothesis: A stochastic microfoundation framework," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, pages 1151-1171.
    5. Corrado DI GUILMI, 2008. "Financial Determinants of Firms Profitability: A Hazard Function Investigation," Working Papers 315, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    6. Corrado Di Guilmi & Laura Carvalho, 2016. "The Dynamics Of Leverage In A Demand-Driven Model With Heterogeneous Firms," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 141, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pósgraduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business Cycles; Magnitude Dependence; Stabilization Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • C49 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Other

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