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Dating business cycles in France: A reference chronology

Author

Listed:
  • Antonin Aviat
  • Frédérique Bec

  • Claude Diebolt

  • Catherine Doz

  • Denis Ferrand
  • Laurent Ferrara

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Eric Heyer

  • Valérie Mignon

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Pierre-Alain Pionnier

Abstract

This paper proposes a reference quarterly chronology for periods of expansion and recession in France since 1970, carried out by the Dating Committee of the French Economic Association (AFSE). The methodology used is based on two pillars: (i) econometric estimations from various key data to identify candidate periods, and (ii) a narrative approach that describes the economic background that prevailed at that time to finalize the dating chronology. Starting from 1970, the Committee has identified four economic recession periods: the two oil shocks 1974-75 and 1980, the investment cycle of 1992-93, and the Great Recession 2008-09 spawned by the Global Financial Crisis. The peak before the Covid-19 recession has been identified in the last quarter of 2019.

Suggested Citation

  • Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Valérie Mignon & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2021. "Dating business cycles in France: A reference chronology," Working Papers hal-04159735, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:wpaper:hal-04159735
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://hal.science/hal-04159735v1
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    Cited by:

    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Basistha, Arabinda, 2025. "A Markov-switching dynamic factor framework for dating global economic cycles," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    3. Kurt, Ozan Ekin, 2022. "Effects of interest rates on functional income distribution, capacity utilization, capital accumulation and profit rates in France: A post-Kaleckian econometric analysis," EconStor Preprints 251003, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    4. Marco Hoeberichts & Jan Willem van den End, 2024. "Detecting turning points in the inflation cycle," Working Papers 808, DNB.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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