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Dating business cycles in France : a reference chronology
[Les cycles économiques de la France : une datation de référence]

Author

Listed:
  • Valérie Mignon

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Antonin Aviat

    (SER Washington)

  • Frédérique Bec

    (CY - CY Cergy Paris Université, CREST-ENSAE, THEMA - Théorie économique, modélisation et applications - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - CY - CY Cergy Paris Université)

  • Claude Diebolt

    (BETA - Bureau d'Économie Théorique et Appliquée - AgroParisTech - UNISTRA - Université de Strasbourg - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) - Université de Haute-Alsace (UHA) Mulhouse - Colmar - UL - Université de Lorraine - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Catherine Doz

    (PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Denis Ferrand

    (Rexecode, Paris)

  • Laurent Ferrara

    (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Eric Heyer

    (OFCE - Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po)

  • Pierre-Alain Pionnier

    (OCDE - Organisation de Coopération et de Développement Economiques = Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development)

Abstract

This paper proposes a reference quarterly chronology for periods of expansion and recession in France since 1970, carried out by the Dating Committee of the French Economic Association. The methodology is based on two pillars: 1) econometric estimations from various key data to identify candidate periods, and 2) a narrative approach that describes the economic background that prevailed at that time to finalize the dating chronology. Starting from 1970, the Committee has identified four economic recession periods: the two oil shocks 1974-1975 and 1980, the investment cycle of 1992-1993, and the Great Recession 2008-2009. For the Covid recession, the peak is dated in the last quarter of 2019 and the trough in the second quarter of 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Valérie Mignon & Antonin Aviat & Frédérique Bec & Claude Diebolt & Catherine Doz & Denis Ferrand & Laurent Ferrara & Eric Heyer & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2023. "Dating business cycles in France : a reference chronology [Les cycles économiques de la France : une datation de référence]," PSE-Ecole d'économie de Paris (Postprint) hal-03661598, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:pseptp:hal-03661598
    DOI: 10.3917/reco.742.0005
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business cycles; French economy; Dating; Narrative approach; Econometric modeling; Cycles économiques; Economie française; Datation; Analyse narrative; Modèles économétriques;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E37 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • C24 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Truncated and Censored Models; Switching Regression Models; Threshold Regression Models
    • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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