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Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada

Author

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  • Rose Cunningham
  • Ilan Kolet

Abstract

Housing wealth is a large component of total wealth and plays an important role in aggregate business cycles. In this paper, we explore data on real house price cycles at the aggregate level and city level for the United States and Canada. Using a panel of 137 cities, we examine the duration, size, and correlations of housing market cycles in North America. We find that North American housing cycles are long, averaging five years of expansion and four years of contraction, and there is a fairly high degree of correlation in house price cycles between U.S. and Canadian cities. We estimate a discrete time survival model with a probit specification for house price expansions and contractions. This model allows us to test for duration dependence. We find that housing market expansions have positive duration dependence since their exit probabilities increase with duration, while contractions seem to have no duration dependence. Standard determinants of house prices (interest rates, income and population growth) are included as controls.

Suggested Citation

  • Rose Cunningham & Ilan Kolet, 2007. "Housing Market Cycles and Duration Dependence in the United States and Canada," Staff Working Papers 07-2, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:07-2
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    Cited by:

    1. Edward E. Leamer, 2007. "Housing is the business cycle," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 149-233.
    2. Girum D. Abate & Luc Anselin, 2016. "House price fluctuations and the business cycle dynamics," CREATES Research Papers 2016-06, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
    3. Ferrara, L. & Koopman, S J., 2010. "Common business and housing market cycles in the Euro area from a multivariate decomposition," Working papers 275, Banque de France.
    4. Leamer Edward E, 2009. "Homes and Cars: Why are the Cycles in Homes and Consumer Durables so Similar?," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 9(3), pages 1-66, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Business fluctuations and cycles; Econometric and statistical methods;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • C41 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics - - - Duration Analysis; Optimal Timing Strategies

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