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Testing for Persistence in Housing Price-to-Income and Price-to-Rent Ratios in 16 OECD Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Christophe Andre

    () (Economics Department, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD))

  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

    () (University of Navarra, Faculty of Economics, Edificio Biblioteca, Entrada Este, E-31080 Pamplona, Spain)

  • Rangan Gupta

    () (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

Housing price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios are among the most widely monitored indicators of housing market conditions. While these ratios tend to fluctuate around a constant level or a mild trend over the long term, they also tend to deviate from these benchmarks for protracted periods. Traditional unit root tests often indicate the presence of a unit root. This paper uses the framework of fractional integration to test the persistence of price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios in a sample of 16 OECD countries spanning four decades. The results indicate that the ratios are highly persistent. The possibility that persistence estimates may be affected by structural breaks in the series is also considered, but evidence of such breaks is found only in a very limited number of cases. Policy action may be required if high price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios have adverse social and economic consequences. Policies should be guided by a careful analysis of the factors behind high ratios.

Suggested Citation

  • Christophe Andre & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2013. "Testing for Persistence in Housing Price-to-Income and Price-to-Rent Ratios in 16 OECD Countries," Working Papers 201321, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  • Handle: RePEc:pre:wpaper:201321
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Hanna Augustyniak & Jacek Łaszek & Krzysztof Olszewski & Joanna Waszczuk, 2013. "To Rent or to Buy – Analysis of Housing Tenure Choice Determined by Housing Policy," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 33.
    2. Efthymios Pavlidis & Alisa Yusupova & Ivan Paya & David Peel & Enrique Martínez-García & Adrienne Mack & Valerie Grossman, 2016. "Episodes of Exuberance in Housing Markets: In Search of the Smoking Gun," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 53(4), pages 419-449, November.
    3. Kennedy, Gerard & Sheenan, Lisa & Woods, Maria, 2016. "Modelling Irish Rents: Recent Developments in Historical Context," Economic Letters 14/EL/16, Central Bank of Ireland.
    4. Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2015. "Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-80, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    5. Dooruj Rambaccussing, 2015. "Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 285, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    6. repec:bla:pacecr:v:22:y:2017:i:3:p:293-311 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2015. "Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-32, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    8. Christophe André, 2016. "Household debt in OECD countries: stylised facts and policy issues," Chapters from NBP Conference Publications, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    9. Rambaccussing, Dooruj, 2015. "Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-32, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    10. Damen, Sven & Vastmans, Frank & Buyst, Erik, 2016. "The effect of mortgage interest deduction and mortgage characteristics on house prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 15-29.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing; Price-to-income ratio; Price-to-rent ratio; Fractional integration; Persistence; Long memory;

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

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