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Testing for Persistence with Breaks and Outliers in South African House Prices

Author

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  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

    (School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra)

  • Goodness C. Aye

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

  • Rangan Gupta

    (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria)

Abstract

This study examines the time series behaviour of South African house prices within a fractional integration modelling framework while identifying potential breaks and outliers. We used quarterly data on the six house price indexes, namely affordable, luxury, middle-segment (all sizes, large, medium and small sizes), covering the periods 1966:Q1-2012:Q1 for the different middle-segments, 1966:Q3-2012:Q1 for the luxury segment and 1969:Q4-2012:Q1 for the affordable segment. In general, there is persistence in South African house prices with breaks identified. Our results show that in the cases of affordable and luxury, shocks will be transitory, disappearing in the long run, while for the remaining four series of the middle-segment, shocks will be permanent. Hence, for the middle-segment series strong policy measures must be adopted in the event of negative shocks, in order to recover the original trends.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis A. Gil-Alana & Goodness C. Aye & Rangan Gupta, 2012. "Testing for Persistence with Breaks and Outliers in South African House Prices," Faculty Working Papers 20/12, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    • Handle: RePEc:una:unccee:wp2012
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Andr頍 & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta, 2014. "Testing for persistence in housing price-to-income and price-to-rent ratios in 16 OECD countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(18), pages 2127-2138, June.
    2. Tsangyao Chang & Tsung-Pao Wu & Rangan Gupta, 2015. "Are house prices in South Africa really nonstationary? Evidence from SPSM-based panel KSS test with a Fourier function," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(1), pages 32-53, January.
    3. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2023. "U.S. House Prices by Census Division: Persistence, Trends and Structural Breaks," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 29(1), pages 79-90, May.
    4. Carcel Hector & Gil-Alana Luis A. & Madigu Godfrey, 2015. "Inflation Convergence in the East African Community: A Fractional Integration and Cointegration Study," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 15(4), pages 507-524, December.
    5. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin, 2019. "The volatility effect on precious metals price returns in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 534(C).
    6. Cleomar Gomes da Silva & Flávio Vilela Vieira, 2014. "BRICS countries: real interest rates and long memory," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(1), pages 409-419.
    7. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Chang, Shinhye & Balcilar, Mehmet & Aye, Goodness C. & Gupta, Rangan, 2015. "Persistence of precious metal prices: A fractional integration approach with structural breaks," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 57-64.
    8. Mehmet Balcilar & Zeynel Abidin Ozdemir, 2018. "The volatility effect on precious metals prices in a stochastic volatility in mean model with time-varying parameters," Working Papers 15-34, Eastern Mediterranean University, Department of Economics.
    9. Giorgio Canarella & Luis Gil-Alana & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M Miller, 2021. "Persistence and cyclical dynamics of US and UK house prices: Evidence from over 150 years of data," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(1), pages 53-72, January.
    10. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana, 2023. "Long-Run Trends and Cycles in US House Prices," CESifo Working Paper Series 10751, CESifo.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; persistence; breaks; fractional integration; South Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C16 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Econometric and Statistical Methods; Specific Distributions
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand

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