IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Long Memory in US Real Output per Capita

  • Guglielmo Maria Caporale
  • Luis A. Gil-Alana

This paper analyses the long memory properties of quarterly real output per capita in the US (1948Q1 – 2008Q3) using non-parametric, semi-parametric and parametric techniques. The results vary substantially depending on the methodology employed. Evidence of mean reversion is obtained in a parametric context if the underlying disturbances are weakly autocorrelated. We also examine the possibility of a structural break in the data and the results indicate that there is a slight reduction in the degree of persistence after the break that is found to occur in the second quarter of 1978.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.cesifo-group.de/portal/page/portal/DocBase_Content/WP/WP-CESifo_Working_Papers/wp-cesifo-2009/wp-cesifo-2009-06/cesifo1_wp2671.pdf
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by CESifo Group Munich in its series CESifo Working Paper Series with number 2671.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: 2009
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2671
Contact details of provider: Postal: Poschingerstrasse 5, 81679 Munich
Phone: +49 (89) 9224-0
Fax: +49 (89) 985369
Web page: http://www.cesifo.de
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
  2. Katsumi Shimotsu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2000. "Local Whittle Estimation in Nonstationary and Unit Root Cases," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1266, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 2003.
  3. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 495-525, May.
  4. Peter M. Robinson & M. Henry, 1999. "Long and short memory conditional heteroskedasticity in estimating the memory parameter of levels," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 304, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
  5. Lee, Dongin & Schmidt, Peter, 1996. "On the power of the KPSS test of stationarity against fractionally-integrated alternatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 285-302, July.
  6. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Willert, Juliane, 2009. "Testing for a break in persistence under long-range dependencies and mean shifts," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-422, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
  7. Laura Mayoral, 2006. "Further Evidence on the Statistical Properties of Real GNP," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 901-920, December.
  8. Luis A. Gil-Alana, . "Fractional integration and structural breaks at unknown periods of time," Faculty Working Papers 16/06, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
  9. William R. Parke, 1999. "What Is Fractional Integration?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 632-638, November.
  10. Demetrescu, Matei & Kuzin, Vladimir & Hassler, Uwe, 2008. "Long Memory Testing In The Time Domain," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(01), pages 176-215, February.
  11. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
  12. Peter C.B. Phillips & Zhijie Xiao, 1998. "A Primer on Unit Root Testing," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1189, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  13. Hassler, Uwe & Kokoszka, Piotr, 2010. "Impulse Responses Of Fractionally Integrated Processes With Long Memory," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 26(06), pages 1855-1861, December.
  14. GIRAITIS, Liudas & KOKOSZKA, Piotr & LEIPUS, Remigijus & TEYSSIÈRE, Gilles, . "Rescaled variance and related tests for long memory in volatility and levels," CORE Discussion Papers RP -1594, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
  15. Robert J. Barro & Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 1991. "Convergence across States and Regions," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 22(1), pages 107-182.
  16. Ignacio N. Lobato & Carlos Velasco, 2005. "Efficient Wald Tests For Fractional Unit Roots," Economics Working Papers we056935, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  17. Quah, Danny, 1993. "Empirical cross-section dynamics in economic growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 37(2-3), pages 426-434, April.
  18. B. Verspagen & G. Silverberg, 2000. "A note on Michelacci and Zaffaroni, long memory, and time series of economic growth," Working Papers 00.17, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies.
  19. Juan J. Dolado & Jesus Gonzalo & Laura Mayoral, 2002. "A Fractional Dickey-Fuller Test for Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1963-2006, September.
  20. Claudio Michelacci & Paolo Zaffaroni, 2000. "(Fractional) Beta Convergence," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 383, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  21. Chambers, Marcus J, 1998. "Long Memory and Aggregation in Macroeconomic Time Series," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1053-72, November.
  22. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
  23. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
  24. Lazarova, Stepana, 2005. "Testing for structural change in regression with long memory processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 329-372.
  25. Sala-i-Martin, Xavier X, 1996. "The Classical Approach to Convergence Analysis," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 106(437), pages 1019-36, July.
  26. Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan), 1989. "Long-term memory in stock market prices," Working papers 3014-89., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  27. Souza, Leonardo Rocha, 2003. "A note on Chambers's "long memory and aggregation in macroeconomic time series"," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 503, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  28. Laura Mayoral, 2007. "Minimum distance estimation of stationary and non-stationary ARFIMA processes," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 10(1), pages 124-148, 03.
  29. Souza, Leonardo Rocha, 2003. "Temporal Aggregation and Bandwidth Selection in Estimating Long Memory," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 478, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
  30. Michael Harrison & Glenn Treacy, 1997. "On the Small Sample Distribution of the R/S Statistic," Economics Technical Papers 976, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
  31. Philipp Sibbertsen & Robinson Kruse, 2009. "Testing for a break in persistence under long-range dependencies," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(3), pages 263-285, 05.
  32. Hidalgo, Javier & Robinson, Peter M., 1996. "Testing for structural change in a long-memory environment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 159-174, January.
  33. Robert J. Barro, 1989. "Economic Growth in a Cross Section of Countries," NBER Working Papers 3120, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  34. Marwan Izzeldin & Anthony Murphy, 2000. "Bootstrapping the Small Sample Critical Values of the Rescaled Range Statistic," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 31(4), pages 351-359.
  35. Hassler, Uwe, 2011. "Estimation of fractional integration under temporal aggregation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 162(2), pages 240-247, June.
  36. Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2005. "Testing and forecasting the degree of integration in the US inflation rate," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 24(3), pages 173-187.
  37. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
  38. Mankiw, N Gregory & Romer, David & Weil, David N, 1992. "A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 107(2), pages 407-37, May.
  39. Abadir, Karim M. & Distaso, Walter & Giraitis, Liudas, 2007. "Nonstationarity-extended local Whittle estimation," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 1353-1384, December.
  40. Tanaka, Katsuto, 1999. "The Nonstationary Fractional Unit Root," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(04), pages 549-582, August.
  41. Velasco, Carlos, 1999. "Non-stationary log-periodogram regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 325-371, August.
  42. Joseph G. Haubrich & Andrew W. Lo, 2001. "The sources and nature of long-term memory in aggregate output," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 15-30.
  43. Katsumi Shimotsu & Peter C.B. Phillips, 2000. "Pooled Log Periodogram Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1267, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  44. Smith, Jeremy & Taylor, Nick & Yadav, Sanjay, 1995. "Comparing the Bias and Misspecification in Arfima Models," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 442, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  45. Ohanissian, Arek & Russell, Jeffrey R. & Tsay, Ruey S., 2008. "True or Spurious Long Memory? A New Test," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 26, pages 161-175, April.
  46. Thomas Mikosch & Catalin Starica, 2004. "Non-stationarities in financial time series, the long range dependence and the IGARCH effects," Econometrics 0412005, EconWPA.
  47. Donald W.K. Andrews, 1988. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 877R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Jul 1989.
  48. Gil-Alana, L., 1998. "Fractional Integration in the Purchasing Power Parity," Economics Working Papers eco98/18, European University Institute.
  49. Diebold, Francis X. & Inoue, Atsushi, 2001. "Long memory and regime switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 131-159, November.
  50. Barro, Robert J & Sala-i-Martin, Xavier, 1992. "Convergence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 100(2), pages 223-51, April.
  51. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  52. Kew, Hsein & Harris, David, 2009. "Heteroskedasticity-Robust Testing For A Fractional Unit Root," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(06), pages 1734-1753, December.
  53. Velasco, Carlos, 2000. "Non-Gaussian Log-Periodogram Regression," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 16(01), pages 44-79, February.
  54. Thomas Mikosch & Cătălin Stărică, 2004. "Nonstationarities in Financial Time Series, the Long-Range Dependence, and the IGARCH Effects," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(1), pages 378-390, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2671. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Julio Saavedra)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.