IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Further evidence on the statistical properties of real GNP

  • Laura Mayoral

The well-known lack of power of unit root tests has often been attributed to the short length of macroeconomic variables and also to DGP’s that depart from the I(1)-I(0) alternatives. This paper shows that by using long spans of annual real GNP and GNP per capita (133 years) high power can be achieved, leading to the rejection of both the unit root and the trend-stationary hypothesis. This suggests that possibly neither model provides a good characterization of these data. Next, more flexible representations are considered, namely, processes containing structural breaks (SB) and fractional orders of integration (FI). Economic justification for the presence of these features in GNP is provided. It is shown that the latter models (FI and SB) are in general preferred to the ARIMA (I(1) or I(0)) ones. As a novelty in this literature, new techniques are applied to discriminate between FI and SB models. It turns out that the FI specification is preferred, implying that GNP and GNP per capita are non-stationary, highly persistent but mean-reverting series. Finally, it is shown that the results are robust when breaks in the deterministic component are allowed for in the FI model. Some macroeconomic implications of these findings are also discussed.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.econ.upf.edu/docs/papers/downloads/955.pdf
File Function: Whole Paper
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra in its series Economics Working Papers with number 955.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: May 2005
Date of revision: Feb 2006
Handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:955
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.econ.upf.edu/

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Michelacci, C. & Zaffaroni, P., 2000. "(Fractional) Beta Convergence," Papers 383, Banca Italia - Servizio di Studi.
  2. Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1992. "The uncertain unit root in real GNP," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 193, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  3. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum, 1989. "Unit Roots in Real GNP: Do We Know, and Do We Care?," NBER Working Papers 3130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Banerjee, Anindya & Lumsdaine, Robin L & Stock, James H, 1992. "Recursive and Sequential Tests of the Unit-Root and Trend-Break Hypotheses: Theory and International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 271-87, July.
  5. Denis Kwiatkowski & Peter C.B. Phillips & Peter Schmidt, 1991. "Testing the Null Hypothesis of Stationarity Against the Alternative of a Unit Root: How Sure Are We That Economic Time Series Have a Unit Root?," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 979, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  6. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  7. Phillips, P.C.B., 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cahiers de recherche 8633, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  8. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1990. "On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 119, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  9. Nunes, Luis C. & Kuan, Chung-Ming & Newbold, Paul, 1995. "Spurious Break," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 11(04), pages 736-749, August.
  10. Juan J. Dolado & Jesús Gonzalo & Laura Mayoral, 2005. "Testing I(1) against I(d) alternatives in the presence of deteministic components," Economics Working Papers 957, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  11. Zaffaroni, Paolo, 2004. "Contemporaneous aggregation of linear dynamic models in large economies," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 75-102, May.
  12. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
  13. Fabrizio Iacone, 2010. "Local Whittle estimation of the memory parameter in presence of deterministic components," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 31(1), pages 37-49, 01.
  14. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-302, April.
  15. repec:cup:etheor:v:11:y:1995:i:4:p:736-49 is not listed on IDEAS
  16. BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
  17. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
  18. Breitung, Jorg & Hassler, Uwe, 2002. "Inference on the cointegration rank in fractionally integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 167-185, October.
  19. Pierre Perron, 2005. "Dealing with Structural Breaks," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2005-017, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  20. Balke, Nathan S & Gordon, Robert J, 1989. "The Estimation of Prewar Gross National Product: Methodology and New Evidence," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(1), pages 38-92, February.
  21. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
  22. Joseph G. Haubrich & Andrew W. Lo, 2001. "The sources and nature of long-term memory in aggregate output," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q II, pages 15-30.
  23. Andrews, Donald W K, 1991. "Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Consistent Covariance Matrix Estimation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(3), pages 817-58, May.
  24. Jones, Charles I, 1995. "Time Series Tests of Endogenous Growth Models," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 110(2), pages 495-525, May.
  25. Bai, Jushan, 1999. "Likelihood ratio tests for multiple structural changes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 299-323, August.
  26. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1988. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  27. Karim Abadir & Gabriel Talmain, 2002. "Aggregation, Persistence and Volatility in a Macro Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 69(4), pages 749-779.
  28. Kydland, Finn E & Prescott, Edward C, 1982. "Time to Build and Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(6), pages 1345-70, November.
  29. Lazarova, Stepana, 2005. "Testing for structural change in regression with long memory processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 329-372.
  30. Lee, Dongin & Schmidt, Peter, 1996. "On the power of the KPSS test of stationarity against fractionally-integrated alternatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 285-302, July.
  31. Tanaka, Katsuto, 1999. "The Nonstationary Fractional Unit Root," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(04), pages 549-582, August.
  32. Diebold, Francis X & Senhadji, Abdelhak S, 1996. "The Uncertain Unit Root in Real GNP: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1291-98, December.
  33. Hsu, Chih-Chiang, 2001. "Change point estimation in regressions with I(d) variables," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 147-155, February.
  34. Laura Mayoral, 2005. "Is the observed persistence spurious? A test for fractional integration versus short memory and structural breaks," Economics Working Papers 956, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra.
  35. William R. Parke, 1999. "What Is Fractional Integration?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 632-638, November.
  36. Hidalgo, Javier & Robinson, Peter M., 1996. "Testing for structural change in a long-memory environment," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 159-174, January.
  37. Juan J. Dolado & Jesus Gonzalo & Laura Mayoral, 2002. "A Fractional Dickey-Fuller Test for Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1963-2006, September.
  38. Thomas Mikosch & Catalin Starica, 2004. "Non-stationarities in financial time series, the long range dependence and the IGARCH effects," Econometrics 0412005, EconWPA.
  39. Krämer, Walter & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2000. "Testing for structural change in the presence of long memory," Technical Reports 2000,31, Technische Universität Dortmund, Sonderforschungsbereich 475: Komplexitätsreduktion in multivariaten Datenstrukturen.
  40. Peter C.B. Phillips & Zhijie Xiao, 1998. "A Primer on Unit Root Testing," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1189, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
  41. J. A. Kregel, 1980. "Introduction," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, M.E. Sharpe, Inc., vol. 3(1), pages 19-20, October.
  42. Long, John B, Jr & Plosser, Charles I, 1983. "Real Business Cycles," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(1), pages 39-69, February.
  43. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-36, July.
  44. Demetrescu, Matei & Kuzin, Vladimir & Hassler, Uwe, 2008. "Long Memory Testing In The Time Domain," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(01), pages 176-215, February.
  45. Banerjee, Anindya & Urga, Giovanni, 2005. "Modelling structural breaks, long memory and stock market volatility: an overview," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 129(1-2), pages 1-34.
  46. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Critical values for multiple structural change tests," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 6(1), pages 72-78, 06.
  47. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:upf:upfgen:955. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.