IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Log in (now much improved!) to save this paper

Modelos de memoria larga para series económicas y financieras

  • Ruiz, Esther
  • Pérez, Ana

En este trabajo se hace una revisión de los modelos de series temporales con memoria larga para la media y la varianza condicionada, con especial atención a los modelos ARMA fraccionalmente integrados (ARFIMA) y a los modelos GARCH y SV fraccionalmente integrados. Se estudian sus propiedades más importantes y se discute su aplicación en la modelización de series económicas y financieras. También se describen los principales métodos de estimación propuestos para estos modelos y se revisan algunos contrastes para detectar la presencia de memoria larga. Finalmente, se revisan los principales resultados sobre predicción de valores futuros de series temporales con memoria larga.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://e-archivo.uc3m.es/bitstream/handle/10016/48/ds010101.pdf?sequence=1
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística in its series DES - Documentos de Trabajo. Estadística y Econometría. DS with number ds010101.

as
in new window

Length:
Date of creation: Jun 2001
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:cte:dsrepe:ds010101
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://portal.uc3m.es/portal/page/portal/dpto_estadistica

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Greene, Myron T. & Fielitz, Bruce D., 1977. "Long-term dependence in common stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 4(3), pages 339-349, May.
  2. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1994. "On the power of unit root tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 1-5, May.
  3. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
  4. Joseph G. Haubrich & Andrew W. Lo, . "The Sources and Nature of Long-Term Memory in the Business Cycle," Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research Working Papers 5-89, Wharton School Rodney L. White Center for Financial Research.
  5. Franses, Philip Hans & Ooms, Marius, 1997. "A periodic long-memory model for quarterly UK inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 117-126, March.
  6. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
  7. Ray, Bonnie K., 1993. "Long-range forecasting of IBM product revenues using a seasonal fractionally differenced ARMA model," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 255-269, August.
  8. Eric Ghysels & Andrew Harvey & Éric Renault, 1995. "Stochastic Volatility," CIRANO Working Papers 95s-49, CIRANO.
  9. Eisinga, Rob & Franses, Philip Hans & Ooms, Marius, 1999. "Forecasting long memory left-right political orientations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(2), pages 185-199, April.
  10. I.N. Lobato & N.E. Savin, 1996. "Real and Spurious Long Memory Properties of Stock Market Data," Econometrics 9605004, EconWPA, revised 26 Sep 1996.
  11. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
  12. Chung, Ching-Fan, 1994. "A note on calculating the autocovariances of the fractionally integrated ARMA models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 293-297.
  13. Diebold, Francis X. & Rudebusch, Glenn D., 1991. "On the power of Dickey-Fuller tests against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 155-160, February.
  14. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Modeling long-run behavior with the fractional ARIMA model," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 277-302, April.
  15. Nelson, Daniel B & Cao, Charles Q, 1992. "Inequality Constraints in the Univariate GARCH Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(2), pages 229-35, April.
  16. Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
  17. Paolo Zaffaroni & Peter M. Robinson, 1997. "Nonlinear Time Series With Long Memory: A Model for Stochastic Volatility," FMG Discussion Papers dp253, Financial Markets Group.
  18. Perez, Ana & Ruiz, Esther, 2001. "Finite sample properties of a QML estimator of stochastic volatility models with long memory," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 157-164, February.
  19. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1996. "Modeling and pricing long memory in stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 151-184, July.
  20. Wright, Jonathan H., 1999. "A new estimator of the fractionally integrated stochastic volatility model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(3), pages 295-303, June.
  21. Ignacio N. Lobato & Peter M. Robinson, 1998. "A Nonparametric Test for I(0)," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 475-495.
  22. Smith, Anthony A, Jr & Sowell, Fallaw & Zin, Stanley E, 1997. "Fractional Integration with Drift: Estimation in Small Samples," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 22(1), pages 103-16.
  23. Dacorogna, Michael M. & Muller, Ulrich A. & Nagler, Robert J. & Olsen, Richard B. & Pictet, Olivier V., 1993. "A geographical model for the daily and weekly seasonal volatility in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 413-438, August.
  24. Hosoya, Yuzo, 1996. "The quasi-likelihood approach to statistical inference on multiple time-series with long-range dependence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 217-236, July.
  25. Yin-Wong Cheung & Francis X. Diebold, 1990. "On maximum-likelihood estimation of the differencing parameter of fractionally integrated noise with unknown mean," Discussion Paper / Institute for Empirical Macroeconomics 34, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  26. Velasco, Carlos, 1998. "Non-Gaussian log-periodogram regression," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 4553, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  27. Juan J. Dolado & Jesus Gonzalo & Laura Mayoral, 2002. "A Fractional Dickey-Fuller Test for Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(5), pages 1963-2006, September.
  28. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
  29. Smith, Jeremy & Taylor, Nick & Yadav, Sanjay, 1995. "Comparing the Bias and Misspecification in Arfima Models," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 442, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
  30. Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
  31. Lobato, I. & Robinson, P. M., 1996. "Averaged periodogram estimation of long memory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 303-324, July.
  32. Andersen, Torben G & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. " Heterogeneous Information Arrivals and Return Volatility Dynamics: Uncovering the Long-Run in High Frequency Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(3), pages 975-1005, July.
  33. Delgado, Miguel A. & Robinson, Peter M., 1993. "New methods for the analysis of long memory time series: application to Spanish inflation," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 3676, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  34. Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1988. "Long memory and persistence in aggregate output," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 7, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  35. Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-70, March.
  36. Bollerslev, Tim & Ole Mikkelsen, Hans, 1999. "Long-term equity anticipation securities and stock market volatility dynamics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 75-99, September.
  37. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
  38. Robinson, P. M., 1991. "Testing for strong serial correlation and dynamic conditional heteroskedasticity in multiple regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 67-84, January.
  39. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
  40. Dolado, Juan J. & Marmol, Francesc, 1997. "On the properties of the Dickey-Pantula test against fractional alternatives," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 11-16, November.
  41. Marmol, Francesc, 1998. "Searching for fractional evidence using combined unit root tests," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 10613, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  42. Breidt, F. Jay & Crato, Nuno & de Lima, Pedro, 1998. "The detection and estimation of long memory in stochastic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 325-348.
  43. Sowell, Fallaw, 1990. "The Fractional Unit Root Distribution," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(2), pages 495-505, March.
  44. Torben G. Andersen & Tim Bollerslev & Francis X. Diebold & Paul Labys, 1999. "The Distribution of Exchange Rate Volatility," Center for Financial Institutions Working Papers 99-08, Wharton School Center for Financial Institutions, University of Pennsylvania.
  45. Lee, Hyung S. & Amsler, Christine, 1997. "Consistency of the KPSS unit root test against fractionally integrated alternative," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 55(2), pages 151-160, August.
  46. Velasco, Carlos, 1998. "Non-stationary log-periodogram regression," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 4554, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  47. Diebold, Francis X. & Lindner, Peter, 1996. "Fractional integration and interval prediction," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 305-313, March.
  48. Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J., 1996. "Modeling volatility persistence of speculative returns: A new approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 185-215, July.
  49. William R. Parke, 1999. "What Is Fractional Integration?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 632-638, November.
  50. Jan Beran & Dirk Ocker, 1999. "SEMIFAR Forecasts, with Applications to Foreign Exchange Rates," CoFE Discussion Paper 99-13, Center of Finance and Econometrics, University of Konstanz.
  51. Deo, Rohit S. & Hurvich, Clifford M., 2001. "On The Log Periodogram Regression Estimator Of The Memory Parameter In Long Memory Stochastic Volatility Models," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(04), pages 686-710, August.
  52. Cheung, Yin-Wong, 1993. "Long Memory in Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 93-101, January.
  53. Beran, Jan & Ocker, Dirk, 2001. "Volatility of Stock-Market Indexes--An Analysis Based on SEMIFAR Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 19(1), pages 103-16, January.
  54. Baillie, Richard T., 1996. "Long memory processes and fractional integration in econometrics," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1), pages 5-59, July.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:cte:dsrepe:ds010101. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Ana Poveda)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.