IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/oaefxx/v8y2020i1p1733280.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Pitfalls in long memory research

Author

Listed:
  • Kunal Saha
  • Vinodh Madhavan
  • Chandrashekhar G. R.
  • David McMillan

Abstract

This paper offers a multifaceted perspective of the literature on long memory. Although the research on long memory has played an instrumental role in elevating the level of scholarly discourse on market efficiency, the authors believe that the issue of the prevalence of long memory or lack thereof remains unsettled. While long memory models should be in the econometrician’s toolbox, their use should be governed by an initial exploratory analysis of the data being studied and the context of the research questions being addressed. Mere fixation on the presence/absence of long memory without taking due cognisance of other confounding factors would pave way for confirmation bias. Consequently, this paper pinpoints the possible pitfalls and potential trade-offs in modeling long memory in asset prices. While not a comprehensive meta-analysis of the literature on long memory, this paper offers a selective bibliography of prior works on long memory that is geared to nudge researchers to exercise caution and judgement while exploring long memory in asset prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Kunal Saha & Vinodh Madhavan & Chandrashekhar G. R. & David McMillan, 2020. "Pitfalls in long memory research," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(1), pages 1733280-173, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:oaefxx:v:8:y:2020:i:1:p:1733280
    DOI: 10.1080/23322039.2020.1733280
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/23322039.2020.1733280
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/23322039.2020.1733280?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Rea, William & Oxley, Les & Reale, Marco & Brown, Jennifer, 2013. "Not all estimators are born equal: The empirical properties of some estimators of long memory," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 29-42.
    2. Bent Jesper Christensen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2007. "The Effect of Long Memory in Volatility on Stock Market Fluctuations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(4), pages 684-700, November.
    3. Walther, Thomas & Klein, Tony & Thu, Hien Pham & Piontek, Krzysztof, 2017. "True or spurious long memory in European non-EMU currencies," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 217-230.
    4. Kirman Alan & Teyssière Gilles, 2002. "Microeconomic Models for Long Memory in the Volatility of Financial Time Series," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 5(4), pages 1-23, January.
    5. Batten, Jonathan A. & Kinateder, Harald & Wagner, Niklas, 2014. "Multifractality and value-at-risk forecasting of exchange rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 401(C), pages 71-81.
    6. Bulla, Jan, 2006. "Application of Hidden Markov Models and Hidden Semi-Markov Models to Financial Time Series," MPRA Paper 7675, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Eunju Hwang & Dong Wan Shin, 2018. "Tests for structural breaks in memory parameters of long-memory heterogeneous autoregressive models," Communications in Statistics - Theory and Methods, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(21), pages 5378-5389, November.
    8. Lillo Fabrizio & Farmer J. Doyne, 2004. "The Long Memory of the Efficient Market," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-35, September.
    9. Kang, Sang Hoon & Cheong, Chongcheul & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2010. "Contemporaneous aggregation and long-memory property of returns and volatility in the Korean stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(21), pages 4844-4854.
    10. Christos Floros & Shabbar Jaffry & Goncalo Valle Lima, 2007. "Long memory in the Portuguese stock market," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 24(3), pages 220-232, August.
    11. Rambaccussing, Dooruj & Davidson, James, 2015. "A test of long memory hypothesis based on self-similarity," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-81, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    12. Jim Gatheral & Thibault Jaisson & Mathieu Rosenbaum, 2018. "Volatility is rough," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(6), pages 933-949, June.
    13. David G. McMillan & Pako Thupayagale, 2009. "The efficiency of African equity markets," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 26(4), pages 275-292, October.
    14. Lobato, Ignacio N & Savin, N E, 1998. "Real and Spurious Long-Memory Properties of Stock-Market Data: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 16(3), pages 280-283, July.
    15. Benoit Mandelbrot & Adlai Fisher & Laurent Calvet, 1997. "A Multifractal Model of Asset Returns," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1164, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    16. Kantelhardt, Jan W. & Zschiegner, Stephan A. & Koscielny-Bunde, Eva & Havlin, Shlomo & Bunde, Armin & Stanley, H.Eugene, 2002. "Multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis of nonstationary time series," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 316(1), pages 87-114.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Le Floc'h, Pascal & Merzéréaud, Mathieu & Beckensteiner, Jennifer & Alban, Frédérique & Duhamel, Erwan & Thébaud, Olivier & Wilson, James, 2023. "Explaining technical change and its impacts over the very long term: The case of the Atlantic sardine fishery in France from 1900 to 2017," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(9).
    2. Iraj Daizadeh, 2021. "Leveraging latent persistency in United States patent and trademark applications to gain insight into the evolution of an innovation-driven economy," Papers 2101.02588, arXiv.org, revised May 2021.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Bhandari, Avishek, 2020. "Long memory and fractality among global equity markets: A multivariate wavelet approach," MPRA Paper 99653, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Tetsuya Takaishi, 2019. "Rough volatility of Bitcoin," Papers 1904.12346, arXiv.org.
    3. Brandi, Giuseppe & Di Matteo, T., 2022. "Multiscaling and rough volatility: An empirical investigation," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    4. Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Stochastic behavioral asset pricing models and the stylized facts," Economics Working Papers 2008-08, Christian-Albrechts-University of Kiel, Department of Economics.
    5. Massimiliano Giacalone & Demetrio Panarello, 2022. "A Nonparametric Approach for Testing Long Memory in Stock Returns’ Higher Moments," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-21, February.
    6. Giuseppe Brandi & T. Di Matteo, 2022. "Multiscaling and rough volatility: an empirical investigation," Papers 2201.10466, arXiv.org.
    7. Lee, Hojin & Song, Jae Wook & Chang, Woojin, 2016. "Multifractal Value at Risk model," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 451(C), pages 113-122.
    8. Lux, Thomas, 2008. "Stochastic behavioral asset pricing models and the stylized facts," Kiel Working Papers 1426, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    9. Josselin Garnier & Knut Sølna, 2018. "Option pricing under fast-varying and rough stochastic volatility," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 489-516, November.
    10. Elisa Alòs & Maria Elvira Mancino & Tai-Ho Wang, 2019. "Volatility and volatility-linked derivatives: estimation, modeling, and pricing," Decisions in Economics and Finance, Springer;Associazione per la Matematica, vol. 42(2), pages 321-349, December.
    11. Ata Assaf & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & Khaled Mokni, 2022. "True or spurious long memory in the cryptocurrency markets: evidence from a multivariate test and other Whittle estimation methods," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 63(3), pages 1543-1570, September.
    12. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Leschinski, Christian & Busch, Marie, 2018. "A multivariate test against spurious long memory," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(1), pages 33-49.
    13. E. Samanidou & E. Zschischang & D. Stauffer & T. Lux, 2001. "Microscopic Models of Financial Markets," Papers cond-mat/0110354, arXiv.org.
    14. Horta, Paulo & Lagoa, Sérgio & Martins, Luís, 2014. "The impact of the 2008 and 2010 financial crises on the Hurst exponents of international stock markets: Implications for efficiency and contagion," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 140-153.
    15. Avishek Bhandari & Bandi Kamaiah, 2021. "Long Memory and Fractality Among Global Equity Markets: a Multivariate Wavelet Approach," Journal of Quantitative Economics, Springer;The Indian Econometric Society (TIES), vol. 19(1), pages 23-37, March.
    16. TEYSSIERE, Gilles, 2003. "Interaction models for common long-range dependence in asset price volatilities," LIDAM Discussion Papers CORE 2003026, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    17. Aslam, Faheem & Aziz, Saqib & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Mughal, Khurrum S. & Khan, Maaz, 2020. "On the efficiency of foreign exchange markets in times of the COVID-19 pandemic," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 161(C).
    18. Vasile Brătian & Ana-Maria Acu & Camelia Oprean-Stan & Emil Dinga & Gabriela-Mariana Ionescu, 2021. "Efficient or Fractal Market Hypothesis? A Stock Indexes Modelling Using Geometric Brownian Motion and Geometric Fractional Brownian Motion," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(22), pages 1-20, November.
    19. Lux, Thomas & Morales-Arias, Leonardo & Sattarhoff, Cristina, 2011. "A Markov-switching multifractal approach to forecasting realized volatility," Kiel Working Papers 1737, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel).
    20. Zunino, Luciano & Figliola, Alejandra & Tabak, Benjamin M. & Pérez, Darío G. & Garavaglia, Mario & Rosso, Osvaldo A., 2009. "Multifractal structure in Latin-American market indices," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 41(5), pages 2331-2340.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:oaefxx:v:8:y:2020:i:1:p:1733280. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/OAEF20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.