Adaptive ARFIMA models with applications to inflation
Many previous analyses of inflation have used either long memory or nonlinear time series models. This paper suggests a simple adaptive modification of the basic ARFIMA model, which uses a flexible Fourier form to allow for a time varying intercept. Simulation evidence suggests that the model provides a good representation of various forms of structural breaks and also that the new model can be efficiently estimated by a QMLE approach. We investigate monthly CPI inflation series for the G7 countries and find evidence of stable long memory parameters across regimes and also of significant nonlinear effects. The estimated adaptive ARFIMA models generally have less persistent long memory parameters than previous studies, with the estimated time dependent intercept being an important component. The model is also supplemented with an adaptive FIGARCH component, yielding a double nonlinear long memory model.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Charles S. Bos & Philip Hans Franses & Marius Ooms, 1998.
"Long Memory and Level Shifts: Re-Analyzing Inflation Rates,"
Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers
98-039/4, Tinbergen Institute.
- Philip Hans Franses & Marius Ooms & Charles S. Bos, 1999. "Long memory and level shifts: Re-analyzing inflation rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 24(3), pages 427-449.
- Franses, Ph.H.B.F. & Ooms, M. & Bos, C.S., 1998. "Long memory and level shifts: re-analysing inflation rates," Econometric Institute Research Papers EI 9811, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Hyung, N. & Franses, Ph.H.B.F., 2001.
"Structural breaks and long memory in US inflation rates: do they matter for forecasting?,"
Econometric Institute Research Papers
EI 2001-13, Erasmus University Rotterdam, Erasmus School of Economics (ESE), Econometric Institute.
- Hyung, Namwon & Franses, Philip Hans & Penm, Jack, 2006. "Structural breaks and long memory in US inflation rates: Do they matter for forecasting?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 95-110, March.
- Granger, Clive W. J. & Hyung, Namwon, 2004. "Occasional structural breaks and long memory with an application to the S&P 500 absolute stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(3), pages 399-421, June.
- Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim, 1997. "Intraday periodicity and volatility persistence in financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 4(2-3), pages 115-158, June.
- Katsumi Shimotsu, 2006. "Simple (but effective) tests of long memory versus structural breaks," Working Papers 1101, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
- Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2009.
"Uk Inflation: Persistence, Seasonality And Monetary Policy,"
Scottish Journal of Political Economy,
Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(1), pages 24-44, 02.
- Denise Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2007. "UK inflation: persistance, seasonality and monetary policy," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0716, Economics, The University of Manchester.
- Baillie, Richard T. & Kapetanios, George, 2007. "Testing for Neglected Nonlinearity in Long-Memory Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 25, pages 447-461, October.
- Francis X. Diebold & Atsushi Inoue, 2000.
"Long Memory and Regime Switching,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0264, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Gadea, Maria & Mayoral, Laura, 2005.
"The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach,"
815, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- María Dolores Gadea & Laura Mayoral, 2006. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries: A Fractionally Integrated Approach," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 2(1), March.
- Laura Mayoral, 2005. "The Persistence of Inflation in OECD Countries:a Fractionally Integrated Approach," Working Papers 259, Barcelona Graduate School of Economics.
- Laura Mayoral, 2005. "The persistence of inflation in OECD countries: A fractionally integrated approach," Economics Working Papers 958, Department of Economics and Business, Universitat Pompeu Fabra, revised Oct 2005.
- González, Andrés & Hubrich, Kirstin & Teräsvirta, Timo, 2011.
"Forecasting inflation with gradual regime shifts and exogenous information,"
Working Paper Series
1363, European Central Bank.
- Andrés González & Kirstin Hubrich & Timo Teräsvirta, 2009. "Forecasting inflation with gradual regime shifts and exogenous information," CREATES Research Papers 2009-03, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
- Claudio Morana & Fabio Cesare Bagliano, 2007. "Inflation and monetary dynamics in the USA: a quantity-theory approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 229-244.
- Timothy Cogley & Argia M. Sbordone, 2008. "Trend Inflation, Indexation, and Inflation Persistence in the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(5), pages 2101-26, December.
- Timothy Cogley, 1998.
"A simple adaptive measure of core inflation,"
Working Papers in Applied Economic Theory
98-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
- Claudio Morana, 2007.
"A structural common factor approach to core inflation estimation and forecasting,"
Applied Economics Letters,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(3), pages 163-169.
- Morana, Claudio, 2004. "A structural common factor approach to core inflation estimation and forecasting," Working Paper Series 0305, European Central Bank.
- Christopher F. Baum & John T. Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1999.
"Persistence in International Inflation Rates,"
Southern Economic Journal,
Southern Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 900-913, April.
- Allan D. Brunner & Gregory D. Hess, 1990.
"Are higher levels of inflation less predictable? A state-dependent conditional heteroskedasticity approach,"
Finance and Economics Discussion Series
141, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Brunner, Allan D & Hess, Gregory D, 1993. "Are Higher Levels of Inflation Less Predictable? A State-Dependent Conditional Heteroscedasticity Approach," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(2), pages 187-97, April.
- Morana Claudio, 2002. "Common Persistent Factors in Inflation and Excess Nominal Money Growth and a New Measure of Core Inflation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-40, November.
- Manmohan S. Kumar & Tatsuyoshi Okimoto, 2007. "Dynamics of Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 1457-1479, 09.
- Bagliano, Fabio C. & Morana, Claudio, 2003. "Measuring US core inflation: A common trends approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 197-212, June.
- Baillie, Richard T & Chung, Ching-Fan & Tieslau, Margie A, 1996. "Analysing Inflation by the Fractionally Integrated ARFIMA-GARCH Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(1), pages 23-40, Jan.-Feb..
- Barbara Meller & Dieter Nautz, 2009.
"The Impact of the European Monetary Union on Inflation Persistence in the Euro Area,"
SFB 649 Discussion Papers
SFB649DP2009-037, Sonderforschungsbereich 649, Humboldt University, Berlin, Germany.
- Meller, Barbara & Nautz, Dieter, 2009. "The impact of the European Monetary Union on inflation persistence in the euro area," Discussion Papers 2009/8, Free University Berlin, School of Business & Economics.
- Christian Conrad & Berthold R. Haag, 2006. "Inequality Constraints in the Fractionally Integrated GARCH Model," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Society for Financial Econometrics, vol. 4(3), pages 413-449.
- Hassler, Uwe & Wolters, Jurgen, 1995. "Long Memory in Inflation Rates: International Evidence," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 13(1), pages 37-45, January.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:29:y:2012:i:6:p:2451-2459. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Zhang, Lei)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.