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Common Persistent Factors in Inflation and Excess Nominal Money Growth and a New Measure of Core Inflation

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  • Morana Claudio

    (University of Piemonte Orientale (Novara))

Abstract

In this paper we introduce a new common long memory factor model. The model allows to estimate the common persistent component in fractionally cointegrated processes. We find evidence of cobreaking and fractional cointegration in excess nominal money growth and inflation in the euro area, and propose a new core inflation measure which takes into account both features. A comparison with other core inflation measures reveals that the proposed core inflation process is superior in terms of forecasting properties and economic interpretability.

Suggested Citation

  • Morana Claudio, 2002. "Common Persistent Factors in Inflation and Excess Nominal Money Growth and a New Measure of Core Inflation," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-40, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:sndecm:v:6:y:2002:i:3:n:3
    DOI: 10.2202/1558-3708.1092
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Claudio Morana & Fabio Cesare Bagliano, 2007. "Inflation and monetary dynamics in the USA: a quantity-theory approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(2), pages 229-244.
    2. Martha Misas Arango & Enrique López Enciso & Juana Téllez Corredor & José Fernando Escobar, 2005. "La Inflación Subyacente en Colombia: Un Enfoque de Tendencias Estocásticas Comunes Asociadas a un VEC Estructural," Borradores de Economia 324, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    3. Claudio Morana & Andrea Beltratti, 2006. "Structural breaks and common factors in the volatility of the Fama-French factor portfolios," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 16(14), pages 1059-1073.
    4. Sibbertsen, Philipp & Wenger, Kai & Wingert, Simon, 2020. "Testing for Multiple Structural Breaks in Multivariate Long Memory Time Series," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-676, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    5. Cassola, Nuno & Morana, Claudio, 2010. "Comovements in volatility in the euro money market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 525-539, April.
    6. Nuno Cassola & Claudio Morana, 2006. "Volatility of interest rates in the euro area: Evidence from high frequency data," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(6-7), pages 513-528.
    7. Morana, Claudio, 2006. "A small scale macroeconometric model for the Euro-12 area," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 391-426, May.
    8. Beltratti, A. & Morana, C., 2006. "Breaks and persistency: macroeconomic causes of stock market volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1-2), pages 151-177.
    9. Morana, Claudio, 2007. "Multivariate modelling of long memory processes with common components," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 919-934, October.
    10. Richard T. Baille & Claudio Morana, 2009. "Investigating Inflation Dynamics and Structural Change with an Adaptive ARFIMA Approach," ICER Working Papers - Applied Mathematics Series 06-2009, ICER - International Centre for Economic Research.
    11. Claudio Morana, 2022. "Euro area inflation and a new measure of core inflation," Working Paper series 22-14, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Nov 2023.
    12. Massmann, Michael, 2007. "Cobra: A package for co-breaking analysis," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 663-679, October.
    13. Claudio Morana, 2004. "Frequency domain principal components estimation of fractionally cointegrated processes," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(13), pages 837-842.
    14. Baillie, Richard T. & Morana, Claudio, 2012. "Adaptive ARFIMA models with applications to inflation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2451-2459.
    15. Cavallero, Alessandro, 2011. "The convergence of inflation rates in the EU-12 area: A distribution dynamics approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 341-357, June.
    16. Rinke, Saskia & Busch, Marie & Leschinski, Christian, 2017. "Long Memory, Breaks, and Trends: On the Sources of Persistence in Inflation Rates," Hannover Economic Papers (HEP) dp-584, Leibniz Universität Hannover, Wirtschaftswissenschaftliche Fakultät.
    17. Mustafa Caglayan & Feng Jiang, 2006. "Reexamining the linkages between inflation and output growth: A bivariate ARFIMA-FIGARCH approach," Working Papers 2006_8, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    18. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Yadollah Dadgar & Rouhollah Nazari, 2019. "Iranian inflation: peristence and structural breaks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(2), pages 398-408, April.

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