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Inflation Forecasting in Angola: A Fractional Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Carlos Barros
  • Luis Gil-Alana

Abstract

This paper forecasts inflation in Angola with an ARFIMA (AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average) model. It is found that inflation in Angola is a highly persistent variable with an order of integration constrained between 0 and 1. Moreover, a structural break is found in August, 1996. Using the second sub-sample for forecasting purposes, the results reveal that inflation will remain low, assuming that prudent macroeconomic policies are maintained.
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Suggested Citation

  • Carlos Barros & Luis Gil-Alana, 2013. "Inflation Forecasting in Angola: A Fractional Approach," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 91-104.
    • Handle: RePEc:adb:adbadr:486
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    Cited by:

    1. Carlos Pestana Barros & Otavio Henrique dos Santos Figueiredo & Peter Fernades Wanke, 2016. "Peasants’ Poverty and Inequality in Angola," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 128(2), pages 751-761, September.
    2. Tule, Moses K. & Salisu, Afees A. & Ebuh, Godday U., 2020. "A test for inflation persistence in Nigeria using fractional integration & fractional cointegration techniques," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 225-237.
    3. Carlos Barros & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2014. "Long Memory in Angolan Macroeconomic Series: Mean Reversion versus Explosive Behaviour," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(1), pages 59-73.
    4. C. P. Barros & João Ricardo Faria & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2017. "The demand for money in Angola," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(2), pages 408-420, April.
    5. Job Nmadu & Ezekiel Yisa & Usman Mohammed & Halima Sallawu & Yebosoko Nmadu & Sokoyami Nmadu, 2022. "Structural Analysis and Forecast of Nigerian Monthly Inflation Movement between 1996 and 2022," RAIS Conference Proceedings 2022-2025 0211, Research Association for Interdisciplinary Studies.
    6. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Yadollah Dadgar & Rouhollah Nazari, 2019. "Iranian inflation: peristence and structural breaks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 43(2), pages 398-408, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

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