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Fractional Integration and the Dynamics of UK Unemployment

  • Luis A. Gil-Alana
  • S. G. Brian Henry

This article is concerned with the dynamic behaviour of UK unemployment. However, instead of using traditional approaches based on I(0) stationary or I(1) (integrated and/or cointegrated) models, we use the fractional integration framework. In doing so, we allow for a more careful study of the low frequency dynamics underlying the series. The conclusions suggest that the UK unemployment may be explained in terms of lagged values of the real oil prices and the real interest rate, with the order of integration of unemployment ranging between 0.50 and 1. Thus, unemployment shows the characteristics of long memory but is mean reverting.

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Article provided by Department of Economics, University of Oxford in its journal Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics.

Volume (Year): 65 (2003)
Issue (Month): 2 (05)
Pages: 221-239

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Handle: RePEc:bla:obuest:v:65:y:2003:i:2:p:221-239
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  1. William R. Parke, 1999. "What Is Fractional Integration?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 81(4), pages 632-638, November.
  2. Nickell, Stephen, 1998. "Unemployment: Questions and Some Answers," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 108(448), pages 802-16, May.
  3. Stephen Nickell, 1997. "Unemployment and Labor Market Rigidities: Europe versus North America," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 55-74, Summer.
  4. Snower, Dennis J. & Karanassou, Marika & Henry, Brian, 1999. "Adjustment Dynamics and the Natural Rate: An Account of UK Unemployment," IZA Discussion Papers 75, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
  5. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2000. "Mean reversion in the real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 285-288, December.
  6. Alan A. Carruth & Mark A. Hooker & Andrew J. Oswald, 1998. "Unemployment Equilibria And Input Prices: Theory And Evidence From The United States," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 80(4), pages 621-628, November.
  7. Olivier Blanchard, 1998. "Revisiting European Unemployment: Unemployment, Capital Accumulation, and Factor Prices," NBER Working Papers 6566, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Granger, C. W. J., 1980. "Long memory relationships and the aggregation of dynamic models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 14(2), pages 227-238, October.
  9. Layard, Richard & Nickell, Stephen & Jackman, Richard, 1991. "Unemployment: Macroeconomic Performance and the Labour Market," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780198284345, March.
  10. Henry, Brian & Nixon, James, 2000. "Unemployment Dynamics in the UK," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 224-47, January.
  11. Olivier J. Blanchard & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Hysteresis and the European Unemployment Problem," NBER Working Papers 1950, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Granger, C. W. J., 1981. "Some properties of time series data and their use in econometric model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 121-130, May.
  13. Sowell, Fallaw, 1992. "Maximum likelihood estimation of stationary univariate fractionally integrated time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 53(1-3), pages 165-188.
  14. Gil-Alana, L. A. & Robinson, P. M., 1997. "Testing of unit root and other nonstationary hypotheses in macroeconomic time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 241-268, October.
  15. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 1999. "Testing fractional integration with monthly data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 16(4), pages 613-629, December.
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