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Unemployment Dynamics in the UK

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  • Henry, Brian
  • Nixon, James

Abstract

This paper examines the determinants of unemployment in terms of its statistical correlates. At one extreme unemployment has been viewed as highly trended in the post war period, with the implication that equilibrium unemployment has followed a broadly similar path. Alternatively, unemployment can be viewed as a highly persistent series that departs for long periods from a more stable equilibria. This paper reports on reduced form models of unemployment and suggests that many exogenous variables that have typically been associated with movements in equilibrium unemployment have little explanatory power. Instead, unemployment may be characterised as a near unit root process driven by a mixture of mean shifting I(0) variables. Copyright 2000 by Oxford University Press.

Suggested Citation

  • Henry, Brian & Nixon, James, 2000. "Unemployment Dynamics in the UK," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 52(1), pages 224-247, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:oxecpp:v:52:y:2000:i:1:p:224-47
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    Cited by:

    1. Vincenzo Cassino & Richard Thornton, 2002. "Do changes in structural factors explain movements in the equilibrium rate of unemployment?," Bank of England working papers 153, Bank of England.
    2. n/a, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Beliefs, Unemployment and Inflation; Evidence from the UK," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 305, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    3. Kalwij, Adriaan, 2001. "Individuals' Unemployment Experiences: Heterogeneity and Business Cycle Effects," IZA Discussion Papers 370, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
    4. Simon Kirby, 2007. "Unemployment in Britain: Some more Questions," National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) Discussion Papers 293, National Institute of Economic and Social Research.
    5. Luis A. Gil-Alana & S. G. Brian Henry, 2003. "Fractional Integration and the Dynamics of UK Unemployment," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 65(2), pages 221-239, May.

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