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Fractional cointegration and real exchange rates

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  • Caporale, Guglielmo Maria
  • Gil-Alana, Luis A.

Abstract

This paper uses fractional integration and cointegration in order to model the DM/dollar and the yen/dollar real exchange rates in terms of both monetary and real factors, more specifically real interest rate and labour productivity differentials. We find that whilst the individual series may be integrated of order 1, their long-run relationship might have a fractionally cointegrated structure. This means that mean reversion occurs, consistently with the findings of other studies. However, it also indicates, in contrast to such studies, that the cointegrating relationship possesses long memory. In other words, the error correction term responds slowly to shocks, implying that deviations from equilibrium are long-lived. It appears that only a combination of real and monetary variables can accurately track down the movements of real exchange rates.
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  • Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2004. "Fractional cointegration and real exchange rates," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 327-340.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:revfin:v:13:y:2004:i:4:p:327-340
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    Cited by:

    1. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Guiglielmo Maria Caporale, 2012. "Testing the PPP Hypothesis in the Sub-Saharan Countries," NCID Working Papers 10/2012, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    2. de Truchis, Gilles & Keddad, Benjamin, 2013. "Southeast Asian monetary integration: New evidences from fractional cointegration of real exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 394-412.
    3. Marcel Aloy & Mohamed Boutahar & Karine Gente & Anne Péguin-Feissolle, 2013. "Long-run relationships between international stock prices: further evidence from fractional cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(7), pages 817-828, March.
    4. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Jiang Liang, 2011. "The PPP hypothesis in the US/China relationship. Fractional integration, time variation and data frequency," Faculty Working Papers 13/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    5. Marzio Galeotti & Matteo Manera & Alessandro Lanza, 2006. "On the Robustness of Robustness Checks of the Environmental Kuznets Curve," UNIMI - Research Papers in Economics, Business, and Statistics unimi-1027, Universitá degli Studi di Milano.
    6. Carlos P. Barros & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & João Faria, 2015. "Mozambique Metical Exchange Rate Dynamics: Evidence of Fractional Co-Integration in the USA and South African Rates," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(4), pages 569-575, December.
    7. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Kefei You, 2016. "Exchange Rate Linkages between the ASEAN Currencies, the US Dollar and the Chinese RMB," CESifo Working Paper Series 5995, CESifo Group Munich.
    8. Carlos P. Barros & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Zhongfei Chen, 2016. "Exchange rate persistence of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar in the NDF market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1399-1414, December.
    9. Carlos P. Barros & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2014. "Long Memory in Angolan Macroeconomic Series: Mean Reversion versus Explosive Behaviour," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(1), pages 59-73, March.
    10. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2004:i:47:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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