IDEAS home Printed from
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

South East Asian Monetary Integration: New Evidences from Fractional Cointegration of Real Exchange Rates

  • Gilles de Truchis


  • Benjamin Keddad


We study the long-run relationship of real exchanges rates (RERs) among the ASEAN-5 countries by testing the theory of Generalized Purchasing Power Parity (G-PPP) from the new perspective of fractional cointegration. The long-run co-movements of the RERs are examined by applying a recent estimator of fractional cointegration that consists of a frequency Whittle approximation of the cointegrating system’s likelihood function. The contribution of the fractional cointegration study is justified by identifying several weak fractional cointegration relationships that signal that deviations of RERs from their long-run equilibrium are highly persistent. These findings contrast with all previous studies that restrict their investigation to the traditional I(1)/I(0) cointegration. Our results support further monetary integration among different sub-groups of the ASEAN-5 countries as they share long-run comovements with each others. However, a full-fledged monetary union embracing all ASEAN-5 members is still limited from the perspective of the G-PPP theory.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL:
Our checks indicate that this address may not be valid because: 404 Not Found ( [301 Moved Permanently]--> If this is indeed the case, please notify (Laurie Gendron)

Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan in its series William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series with number wp1039.

in new window

Length: pages
Date of creation: 01 Oct 2012
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2012-1039
Contact details of provider: Postal: 724 E. University Ave, Wyly Hall 1st Flr, Ann Arbor MI 48109
Phone: 734 763-5020
Fax: 734 763-5850
Web page:

More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2010. "Exact Local Whittle Estimation of Fractionally Cointegrated Systems," Discussion Papers 2010-11, Graduate School of Economics, Hitotsubashi University.
  2. Baillie, R.T. & Bollerslev, T., 1993. "Cointegration, Fractional Cointegration, and Exchange RAte Dynamics," Papers 9103, Michigan State - Econometrics and Economic Theory.
  3. Eric Girardin, 2005. "Growth-cycle features of East Asian countries: are they similar?," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 10(2), pages 143-156.
  4. Peter Wilson & Keen Meng Choy, 2006. "Prospects For Enhanced Exchange Rate Cooperation In East Asia : Some Preliminary Findings From Generalized Ppp Theory," Macroeconomics Working Papers 22585, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
  5. Hans Genberg & Pierre L. Siklos, 2009. "Revisiting the Shocking Aspects of Asian Monetary Unification," Working Papers 192009, Hong Kong Institute for Monetary Research.
  6. Morten Ørregaard Nielsen & Per Frederiksen, 2010. "Fully Modified Narrow-Band Least Squares Estimation of Weak Fractional Cointegration," CREATES Research Papers 2010-31, School of Economics and Management, University of Aarhus.
  7. Enders, Walter & Hurn, Stan, 1997. "Common trends and generalized purchasing power parity," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 43(3), pages 437-443.
  8. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Essahbi Essaadi, 2011. "Business cycles synchronization in East Asian economy: evidences from time-varying coherence study," Post-Print halshs-00566116, HAL.
  9. Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
  10. Liew, Venus Khim-sen & Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Chong, Terence Tai-leung, 2004. "Are Asian real exchange rates stationary?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(3), pages 313-316, June.
  11. Katsumi Shimotsu, 2006. "Exact Local Whittle Estimation of Fractional Integration with Unknown Mean and Time Trend," Working Papers 1061, Queen's University, Department of Economics.
  12. Robinson, Peter M. & Yajima, Yoshihiro, 2002. "Determination of cointegrating rank in fractional systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 106(2), pages 217-241, February.
  13. Bayoumi, T. & Eichengreen, B., 1994. "One Money or Many? Analysing the Prospects for Monetary Unification in Various Parts of the World," Princeton Studies in International Economics 76, International Economics Section, Departement of Economics Princeton University,.
  14. John Williamson, 2005. "A Currency Basket for East Asia, Not Just China," Policy Briefs PB05-01, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  15. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
  16. Ito, Takatoshi & Ogawa, Eiji & Sasaki, Yuri Nagataki, 1998. "How Did the Dollar Peg Fail in Asia?," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 12(4), pages 256-304, December.
  17. Søren Johansen & Morten Ørregaard Nielsen, 2012. "Likelihood Inference for a Fractionally Cointegrated Vector Autoregressive Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(6), pages 2667-2732, November.
  18. Kim, David, 2007. "An East Asian currency union?: The empirical nature of macroeconomic shocks in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 847-866, December.
  19. Toan Nguyen, 2010. "An analysis of East Asian currency area: Bayesian dynamic factor model approach," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(1), pages 103-117.
  20. Sato, Kiyotaka & Zhang, Zhaoyong & Allen, David, 2009. "The suitability of a monetary union in East Asia: What does the cointegration approach tell?," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 79(9), pages 2927-2937.
  21. Prema-chandra Athukorala & Archanun Kohpaiboon, 2009. "Intra-Regional Trade in East Asia: The Decoupling Fallacy, Crisis, and Policy Challenges," Departmental Working Papers 2009-09, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
  22. Ogawa, Eiji & Ito, Takatoshi, 2002. "On the Desirability of a Regional Basket Currency Arrangement," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 317-334, September.
  23. Dufrénot, Gilles & Lardic, Sandrine & Mathieu, Laurent & Mignon, Valérie & Péguin-Feissolle, Anne, 2008. "Explaining the European exchange rates deviations: Long memory or non-linear adjustment?," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 207-215, July.
  24. Nielsen, Morten Orregaard & Shimotsu, Katsumi, 2007. "Determining the cointegrating rank in nonstationary fractional systems by the exact local Whittle approach," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 141(2), pages 574-596, December.
  25. Kwanho Shin & Yunjong Wang, 2003. "Trade Integration and Business Cycle Synchronization in East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 2(3), pages 1-20.
  26. Cheung, Yin-Wong & Lai, Kon S, 1993. "A Fractional Cointegration Analysis of Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 103-12, January.
  27. Fukuda, Shin-ichi & Hoshi, Takeo & Ito, Takatoshi & Rose, Andrew, 2006. "International Finance," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 455-458, December.
  28. Poomthan Rangkakulnuwat & Sung Ahn & Holly Wang & Susan He, 2010. "Extended generalized purchasing power parity and optimum currency area in East Asian countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(4), pages 497-513.
  29. Eiji Ogawa & Kentaro Kawasaki, 2008. "Adopting a Common Currency Basket Arrangement into the ASEAN Plus Three," NBER Chapters, in: International Financial Issues in the Pacific Rim: Global Imbalances, Financial Liberalization, and Exchange Rate Policy (NBER-EASE Volume 17), pages 219-237 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  30. Grace H.Y. Lee & M. Azali, 2009. "THE ENDOGENEITY OF THE OPTIMUM CURRENCY AREA CRITERIA IN EAST ASIa," Monash Economics Working Papers 15-09, Monash University, Department of Economics.
  31. Christopher F. Baum & John T. Barkoulas & Mustafa Caglayan, 1999. "Persistence in International Inflation Rates," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 65(4), pages 900-913, April.
  32. Rana, Pradumna B., 2007. "Economic integration and synchronization of business cycles in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 18(5), pages 711-725, October.
  33. Graham Bird & Ramkishen Rajan, 2002. "Optimal currency baskets and the third currency phenomenon: exchange rate policy in Southeast Asia," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(8), pages 1053-1073.
  34. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alaña, Luis A., 2000. "Fractional cointegration and real exchange rates," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,69, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  35. Bayoumi, Tamim & Eichengreen, Barry & Mauro, Paolo, 2000. "On Regional Monetary Arrangements For ASEAN," CEPR Discussion Papers 2411, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  36. de Truchis, Gilles, 2013. "Approximate Whittle analysis of fractional cointegration and the stock market synchronization issue," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 98-105.
  37. Ramikishen Rajan, 2002. "Exchange Rate Policy Options for Post-crisis Southeast Asia: Is There a Case for Currency Baskets?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(1), pages 137-163, 01.
  38. J.S. Eades, 2005. "East Asia," Chapters, in: A Handbook of Economic Anthropology, chapter 34 Edward Elgar.
  39. Cheung, Yin-Wong, 1993. "Long Memory in Foreign-Exchange Rates," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(1), pages 93-101, January.
  40. Ignacio N. Lobato & Carlos Velasco, 2005. "Efficient Wald Tests For Fractional Unit Roots," Economics Working Papers we056935, Universidad Carlos III, Departamento de Economía.
  41. Doo-Yull Choi & Bong-Han Kim & See-Won Kim, 2011. "Nonlinear mean-reversion in Southeast Asian real exchange rates," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(19), pages 1409-1421.
  42. Enders, Walter & Hurn, Stan, 1994. "Theory and Tests of Generalized Purchasing-Power Parity: Common Trends and Real Exchange Rates in the Pacific Rim," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 2(2), pages 179-90, June.
  43. Kiyotaka Sato & Zhaoyong Zhang, 2006. "Real Output Co-movements in East Asia: Any Evidence for a Monetary Union?," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 29(12), pages 1671-1689, December.
  44. Dornbusch, Rudiger, 1976. "Expectations and Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 84(6), pages 1161-76, December.
  45. Robinson, P.M., 2008. "Diagnostic testing for cointegration," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 206-225, March.
  46. Matsuki, Takashi & Sugimoto, Kimiko, 2013. "Stationarity of Asian real exchange rates: An empirical application of multiple testing to nonstationary panels with a structural break," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 52-58.
  47. Eric Girardin, 2004. "Regime-Dependent Synchronization of Growth Cycles between Japan and East Asia," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 3(3), pages 147-176.
  48. Chow, Hwee Kwan & Kim, Yoonbai, 2003. "A common currency peg in East Asia? Perspectives from Western Europe," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 25(3), pages 331-350, September.
  49. Gil-Alana, Luis A., 2000. "Mean reversion in the real exchange rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 285-288, December.
  50. Taufiq Choudhry, 2005. "Asian Currency Crisis and the Generalized PPP: Evidence from the Far East," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(2), pages 137-157, 06.
  51. Ronald McKinnon & Gunther Schnabl, 2004. "The Return to Soft Dollar Pegging in East Asia. Mitigating Conflicted Virtue," International Finance 0406007, EconWPA, revised 07 Jul 2004.
  52. Javier Hualde & A Robinson, 2006. "Root-N-Consistent Estimation Of Weakfractional Cointegration," STICERD - Econometrics Paper Series /06/499, Suntory and Toyota International Centres for Economics and Related Disciplines, LSE.
  53. Zhaoyong Zhang & Kiyotaka Sato & Michael McAleer, 2003. "Asian Monetary Integration: A Structural VAR Approach," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-212, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
  54. Changmo AHN & Hong-Bum KIM & Dongkoo CHANG, 2006. "Is East Asia Fit For An Optimum Currency Area? An Assessment Of The Economic Feasibility Of A Higher Degree Of Monetary Cooperation In East Asia," The Developing Economies, Institute of Developing Economies, vol. 44(3), pages 288-305.
  55. Wei Sun & Gerald Simons, 2011. "Monetary Integration in East Asia: Evidence from Real Effective Exchange Rates," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 19(5), pages 865-876, November.
  56. Mishra, Ritesh Kumar & Sharma, Chandan, 2010. "Real exchange rate behavior and optimum currency area in East Asia: Evidence from Generalized Purchasing Power Parity," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 205-213, June.
  57. Kwack, Sung Yeung, 2004. "An optimum currency area in East Asia: feasibility, coordination, and leadership role," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 153-169, February.
  58. Velasco, Carlos, 1999. "Non-stationary log-periodogram regression," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 91(2), pages 325-371, August.
  59. Watanabe, Shingo & Ogura, Masanobu, 2010. "How far apart are the two ACUs from each other? Asian currency unit and Asian currency union," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 11(2), pages 152-172, June.
  60. Frédérique Bec & Songlin Zeng, 2012. "Are Southeast Asian Real Exchange Rates Mean Reverting?," Working Papers hal-00685812, HAL.
  61. Benassy-Quere, Agnes, 1999. "Optimal Pegs for East Asian Currencies," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 44-60, March.
  62. Moneta, Fabio & Rüffer, Rasmus, 2009. "Business cycle synchronisation in East Asia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 1-12, January.
  63. Yung Chul Park, 2010. "RMB Internationalization and Its Implications for Financial and Monetary Cooperation in East Asia," China & World Economy, Institute of World Economics and Politics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, vol. 18(2), pages 1-21.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wdi:papers:2012-1039. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Laurie Gendron)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.