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Fractional cointegration and real exchange rates

Author

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  • Caporale, Guglielmo Maria
  • Gil-Alaña, Luis A.

Abstract

This paper uses fractional integration and cointegration in order to model the DM/dollar and the yen/dollar real exchange rates in terms of both monetary and real factors, more specifically real interest rate and labour productivity differentials. We find that whilst the individual series may be integrated of order 1, their long-run relationship might have a fractionally cointegrated structure. This means that mean reversion occurs, consistently with the findings of other studies. However, it also indicates, in contrast to such studies, that the cointegrating relationship possesses long memory. In other words, the error correction term responds slowly to shocks, implying that deviations from equilibrium are long-lived. It appears that only a combination of real and monetary variables can accurately track down the movements of real exchange rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alaña, Luis A., 2000. "Fractional cointegration and real exchange rates," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 2000,69, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:sfb373:200069
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Luis Alberiko Gil-Alaña & Guiglielmo Maria Caporale, 2012. "Testing the PPP Hypothesis in the Sub-Saharan Countries," NCID Working Papers 10/2012, Navarra Center for International Development, University of Navarra.
    3. Lorenzo Reus & Guillermo Alexander Sepúlveda-Hurtado, 2023. "Foreign exchange trading and management with the stochastic dual dynamic programming method," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 1-38, December.
    4. Luis A. Gil-Alana & Jiang Liang, 2011. "The PPP hypothesis in the US/China relationship. Fractional integration, time variation and data frequency," Faculty Working Papers 13/11, School of Economics and Business Administration, University of Navarra.
    5. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & You, Kefei, 2018. "Exchange rate linkages between the ASEAN currencies, the US dollar and the Chinese RMB," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 227-238.
    6. de Truchis, Gilles & Keddad, Benjamin, 2013. "Southeast Asian monetary integration: New evidences from fractional cointegration of real exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 394-412.
    7. Boubaker, Heni & Zorgati, Mouna Ben Saad & Bannour, Nawres, 2021. "Interdependence between exchange rates: Evidence from multivariate analysis since the financial crisis to the COVID-19 crisis," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 592-608.
    8. Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo & Lanza, Alessandro, 2006. "On the Robustness of Robustness Checks of the Environmental Kuznets Curve," Climate Change Modelling and Policy Working Papers 12045, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    9. Carlos P. Barros & Luis Alberiko Gil-Alana & João Faria, 2015. "Mozambique Metical Exchange Rate Dynamics: Evidence of Fractional Co-Integration in the USA and South African Rates," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(4), pages 569-575, December.
    10. Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Gil-Alana, Luis A. & You, Kefei, 2018. "Exchange rate linkages between the ASEAN currencies, the US dollar and the Chinese RMB," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 227-238.
    11. Maria Malmierca-Ordoqui & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Manuel Monge, 2024. "Fractional cointegration between energy imports to the EURO area and exchange rates to the US dollar," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 66(2), pages 859-882, February.
    12. Carlos P. Barros & Luis A. Gil-Alana & Zhongfei Chen, 2016. "Exchange rate persistence of the Chinese yuan against the US dollar in the NDF market," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1399-1414, December.
    13. Marcel Aloy & Mohamed Boutahar & Karine Gente & Anne P駵in-Feissolle, 2013. "Long-run relationships between international stock prices: further evidence from fractional cointegration tests," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(7), pages 817-828, March.
    14. repec:ebl:ecbull:v:3:y:2004:i:47:p:1-8 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Carlos Barros & Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Luis Gil-Alana, 2014. "Long Memory in Angolan Macroeconomic Series: Mean Reversion versus Explosive Behaviour," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 26(1), pages 59-73.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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